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Government Debt Maturity in Japan: 1965 to the Present

Author

Listed:
  • Junko Koeda

    (Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050 Japan,)

  • Yosuke Kimura

    (Tokyo Institute of Technology,)

Abstract

This study constructs and analyzes a dataset of Japanese government bond’s maturity structure for the fiscal years 1965–2019. Using the maturity structure data at the end of each fiscal year for the past three decades, this study proposes extracting the bond supply factor from the maturity structure variables, and structurally estimates a canonical preferred-habitat term structure model. The results provide a debt maturity equation in the fiscal year cycle, and demonstrate that two yield factors (bond supply factor and short-term interest rate) can account for annual-frequency variations in Japanese bond yields. The supply factor also explains the continued decline in the long-term interest rate in a zero lower bound environment for the past two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Junko Koeda & Yosuke Kimura, 2021. "Government Debt Maturity in Japan: 1965 to the Present," Working Papers 2103, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:2103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    5. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:77:p:5-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    7. Junko Koeda, 2017. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns in Zero-Lower Bound and Normal Environments: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 443-457, December.
    8. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
    9. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2014. "Defying gravity: can Japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis? [Fiscal discipline and the cost of public debt service: some estimates for OECD countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 5-44.
    10. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 45-96, November.
    11. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    12. Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2018. "Do Market Segmentation and Preferred Habitat Theories Hold in Japan? : Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of Bond Purchases," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    13. Cargill, Thomas F. & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2003. "Postal Savings and Fiscal Investment in Japan: The PSS and the FILP," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257348, Decembrie.
    14. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
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    Cited by:

    1. Koeda, Junko & Sekine, Atsushi, 2022. "Nelson–Siegel decay factor and term premia in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    maturity structure; yield curve; debt management; Japan; supply factor; bond yield;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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