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Government Debt Maturity in Japan: 1965 to the Present

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  • Junko Koeda
  • Yosuke Kimura

Abstract

This study constructs a dataset of Japanese government bonds' maturity structure for the fiscal years 1965?2020. Using the maturity structure data at the end of each fiscal year for the past three decades, this study structurally estimates a canonical preferred-habitat term structure model extracting the bond supply factor. The results provide a debt maturity equation in the fiscal-year cycle and demonstrate that two yield factors (bond supply factor and short-term interest rate) can account for annual-frequency variations in Japanese bond yields. The supply factor also explains the continued decline in the long-term interest rate for the past two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Junko Koeda & Yosuke Kimura, 2021. "Government Debt Maturity in Japan: 1965 to the Present," Working Papers e163, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e163
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    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
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    6. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
    7. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 45-96, November.
    8. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2020. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 323-364, March.
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
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    11. Junko Koeda, 2017. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns in Zero-Lower Bound and Normal Environments: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 443-457, December.
    12. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2014. "Defying gravity: can Japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis? [Fiscal discipline and the cost of public debt service: some estimates for OECD countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 5-44.
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    Cited by:

    1. Koeda, Junko & Sekine, Atsushi, 2022. "Nelson–Siegel decay factor and term premia in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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