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The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Di Serio
  • Matteo Fragetta
  • Emanuel Gasteiger
  • Giovanni Melina

Abstract

We estimate government spending multipliers in demand‐ and supply‐driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand‐driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply‐driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non‐zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand‐driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from −$$ - $$0.5 in supply‐driven recessions to about 2 in demand‐driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor‐augmented interacted vector‐autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR‐X). The model captures the time‐varying state of the business‐cycle including strongly and moderately demand‐ and supply‐driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:86:y:2024:i:6:p:1342-1372
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.12626
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Di Bucchianico & Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2025. "Time-Varying Impacts of Government Spending on CO2 Emissions," IMF Working Papers 2025/132, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Di Serio, Mario, 2024. "Public debt determinants: A time-varying analysis of core and peripheral Euro area countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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