IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/afc/wpaper/11-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Revision of the US Business-Cycles Chronology 1790–1928

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Amélie

    (Audencia Nantes, School of Management, 8 route de la Jonelière, 44312 Nantes Cedex 3, France.)

  • Darné Olivier

    (EMNA, University of Nantes, IEMN–IAE, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, BP 52231, 44322 Nantes, France.)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (BETA/CNRS, Université de Strasbourg, France.)

Abstract

This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US business cycles for the 1790-1928 period using the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constructed by Johnson and Williamson (2008). The resulting chronology alters more than 50% percent of the peaks and troughs identified by the NBER and Davis (2006)'s chronologies, especially during the antebellum period, and removes those cycles long considered the most questionable, as growth or industrial cycles. An important result of the new chronology is the lack of discernible differences in the frequency and duration of US business cycles among the antebellum and postbellum periods. We also find that the average frequency and duration of contractions are less important than those of expansions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Amélie & Darné Olivier & Claude Diebolt, 2011. "A Revision of the US Business-Cycles Chronology 1790–1928," Working Papers 11-01, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:11-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cliometrie.org/images/wp/AFC_WP_01-2011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
    2. Romer, Christina D, 1989. "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 1-37, February.
    3. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
    5. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Income and Its Composition, 1919-1938, Volume II," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn41-3.
    6. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    8. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    9. Douglass North, 1960. "The United States Balance of Payments, 1790-1860," NBER Chapters, in: Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century, pages 573-628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "The Euro area business cycle: stylized facts and measurement issues," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10173, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    12. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 573-609, September.
    13. Weiss, Thomas, 1967. "The Service Sector in the United States, 1839 to 1899," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 625-628, December.
    14. Davis, Joseph H., 2006. "An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 103-121, March.
    15. Willard Long Thorp, 1926. "Prefatory Note," NBER Chapters, in: Business Annals, pages 101-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Willard Long Thorp, 1926. "Business Annals," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number thor26-1.
    17. Trescott, Paul B., 1966. "Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures, 1861–1875," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 206-222, June.
    18. Matthew Simon, 1960. "The United States Balance of Payments, 1861-1900," NBER Chapters, in: Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century, pages 629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Product since 1869," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn46-1.
    20. Miron, Jeffrey A. & Romer, Christina D., 1990. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884–1940," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 321-337, June.
    21. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
    22. Dorothy S. Brady, 1966. "Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brad66-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Levy, Daniel, 2022. "Interpolation and shock persistence of prewar U.S. macroeconomic time series: A reconsideration," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "A new monthly chronology of the US industrial cycles in the prewar economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 3-9.
    2. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    3. Charlotte Le Chapelain, 2012. "Allocation des talents et accumulation de capital humain en France à la fin du XIXe siècle," Working Papers 12-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
    5. Joseph H. Davis, 2005. "An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790's," NBER Working Papers 11157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    8. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
    9. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
    10. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    11. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    12. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    13. Levy, Daniel, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 100-136.
    14. J. Bradford DeLong, 2002. "Do We Have a "New" Macroeconomy?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 2, pages 163-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
    16. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Officer, Lawrence H., 2002. "The U.S. Specie Standard, 1792-1932: Some Monetarist Arithmetic," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 113-153, April.
    18. Maurizio Bovi, 2003. "Nonparametric Analysis Of The International Business Cycles," ISAE Working Papers 37, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    19. Joseph Davis & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2016. "America's First Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 21856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:11-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afcccea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afcccea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.