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The Equity Premium: A Deeper Puzzle

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  • Azeredo, Francisco

Abstract

Traditional pre-1930 consumption measures understate the extent of serial correlation in the U.S. annual real growth rate of per capita consumption of non-durables and services due to measurement limitations in the construction of their major components. Under alternative measures proposed in this study, the serial correlation of consumption growth is found to be 0.32, contrary to the original estimate of -0.14. This new evidence implies that the class of dynamic general equilibrium models studied by Mehra and Prescott [12] generates negative equity premium for reasonable risk-aversion levels, thus further exacerbating the equity premium puzzle.

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  • Azeredo, Francisco, 2007. "The Equity Premium: A Deeper Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6ks5p6v5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt6ks5p6v5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Mehra, Rajnish (ed.), 2007. "Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780444508997.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    4. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Appendices and Index, "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 465-664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Summary of Findings," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 389-428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
    7. William Howard Shaw, 1947. "Value of Commodity Output since 1869," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number shaw47-1.
    8. Kevin D. Salyer, 1988. "Overlapping Generations and Representative Agent Models of the Equity Premia: Implications from a Growing Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 565-578, August.
    9. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Introduction to "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 3-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. John Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2007. "Risk Based Explanations of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 2003. "The equity premium in retrospect," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 889-938, Elsevier.
    12. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Product since 1869," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn46-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francis Larson & John List & Robert Metcalfe, 2016. "Can Myopic Loss Aversion Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle? Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment with Professional Traders," Natural Field Experiments 00534, The Field Experiments Website.
    2. Pepin Dominique, 2016. "The subjective discount factor and the coefficient of relative risk aversion under time-additive isoelastic expected utility model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 931-935.
    3. Vojtěch Menzl, 2021. "Alternative Views on the Link between Risk Aversion and Diminishing Marginal Utility of Wealth," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(2), pages 51-72.
    4. Javier Rojo‐Suárez & Ana Belén Alonso‐Conde & Rubén Lago‐Balsalobre, 2021. "Industry bubbles and the cross‐sectional variation of expected consumption growth," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 1047-1055, September.

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