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The Equity Premium: A Deeper Puzzle

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  • Azeredo, Francisco

Abstract

Traditional pre-1930 consumption measures understate the extent of serial correlation in the U.S. annual real growth rate of per capita consumption of non-durables and services due to measurement limitations in the construction of their major components. Under alternative measures proposed in this study, the serial correlation of consumption growth is found to be 0.32, contrary to the original estimate of -0.14. This new evidence implies that the class of dynamic general equilibrium models studied by Mehra and Prescott [12] generates negative equity premium for reasonable risk-aversion levels, thus further exacerbating the equity premium puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Azeredo, Francisco, 2007. "The Equity Premium: A Deeper Puzzle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6ks5p6v5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt6ks5p6v5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Miguel Martin-Valmayor, 2021. "Persistence in the market risk premium: evidence across countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 413-427, July.
    3. Javier Rojo‐Suárez & Ana Belén Alonso‐Conde & Rubén Lago‐Balsalobre, 2021. "Industry bubbles and the cross‐sectional variation of expected consumption growth," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 1047-1055, September.
    4. Dolmas, Jim, 2017. "Campbell and Cochrane meet Melino and Yang: Reverse engineering the surplus ratio in a Mehra–Prescott economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 55-62.
    5. Pepin Dominique, 2016. "The subjective discount factor and the coefficient of relative risk aversion under time-additive isoelastic expected utility model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 931-935.
    6. Vojtěch Menzl, 2021. "Alternative Views on the Link between Risk Aversion and Diminishing Marginal Utility of Wealth," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(2), pages 51-72.
    7. Pollak, Andreas, 2022. "A Unified Theory of Growth, Cycles and Unemployment - Part II: Business Cycles and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 117769, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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