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Die aktuelle Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Lichte der ifo Konjunkturampel

Author

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  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Abstract

Gesamtwirtschaftliche Indikatoren sollten zyklische Wendepunkte der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion zuverlässig und mit statistisch signifikantem Vorlauf anzeigen. Stets muss beurteilt werden, ob die monatliche Veränderung eines Indikators einen Wechsel des konjunkturellen Regimes und damit einen konjunkturellen Wendepunkt signalisiert oder ob sie noch mit einem Verbleib im bisherigen Regime im Einklang steht. Für diese Entscheidung können die Schätzergebnisse von Markov-Switching-Modellen wichtige Informationen liefern. Auch das ifo Geschäftsklima für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft, der wichtigste Frühindikator der deutschen Konjunktur, kann durch ein Markov-Switching-Modell – und die danach geschätzten Regime-Wahrscheinlichkeiten durch die ifo Konjunkturampel – abgebildet werden. Aktuell signalisiert die ifo Konjunkturampel, dass die deutsche Konjunktur im dritten Quartal 2011 einen oberen Wendepunkt durchlaufen haben dürfte.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die aktuelle Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Lichte der ifo Konjunkturampel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(22), pages 36-38, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:64:y:2011:i:22:p:36-38
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2011_22_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    2. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Markov-Switching und ifo Geschäftsklima," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(10), pages 25-30, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion; Konjunktur; Konjunkturindikator;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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