Does housing really lead the business cycle?
The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third,there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2010|
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"Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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"The Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain,"
IMF Working Papers
09/203, International Monetary Fund.
- Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010. "The drivers of housing cycles in Spain," SERIEs- Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
- Luis J. Álvarez & Guido Bulligan & Alberto Cabrero & Laurent Ferrara & Harald Stahl, 2010.
"Housing Cycles In The Major Euro Area Countries,"
1001, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
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