Does housing really lead the business cycle?
The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third,there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.
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- Álvarez, L-J. & Bulligan, G. & Cabrero, A. & Ferrara, L. & Stahl, H., 2009.
"Housing cycles in the major euro area countries,"
269, Banque de France.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso, 2003.
"Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2003. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Working Papers 237, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2010.
"The drivers of housing cycles in Spain,"
Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 101-130, March.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, August.
- Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
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