Does housing really lead the business cycle?
The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third,there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.
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- Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2006. "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 371-388, June.
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"Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3696, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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- Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
- Álvarez, L-J. & Bulligan, G. & Cabrero, A. & Ferrara, L. & Stahl, H., 2009.
"Housing cycles in the major euro area countries,"
269, Banque de France.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
- Pau Rabanal & Oriol Aspachs-Bracons, 2009. "The Drivers of Housing Cycles in Spain," IMF Working Papers 09/203, International Monetary Fund.
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