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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey

  • Steffen Henzel


  • Timo Wollmershäuser

We provide evidence on the fit of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve for selected euro zone countries, the US and the UK. Instead of imposing rational expectations and estimating the Phillips curve by the Generalized Method of Moments, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is the Ifo World Economic Survey, which quarterly polls economic experts about their expected future development of inflation. Our main findings are as follows: (i) In comparison with the rational expectations approach, backward-looking behaviour turns out to more relevant for most countries in our sample. (ii) The use of survey data for inflation expectations yields a positive slope of the Phillips curve when the output gap is used as a measure for marginal cost.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1694.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1694
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  1. Adam, Klaus & Padula, Mario, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and subjective expectations in the United States," Working Paper Series 0222, European Central Bank.
  2. Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies," Economics Working Paper Archive 491, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  4. Fabio Rumler, 2007. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 427-451, September.
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  8. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2002. "Estimated Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curves for the G7," Working Papers 2002_8, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
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  13. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  20. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
  21. Paloviita , Maritta, 2004. "Inflation dynamics in the euro area and the role of expectations: further results," Research Discussion Papers 21/2004, Bank of Finland.
  22. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "Quantifying Inflation Expectations with the Carlson-Parkin Method: A Survey-based Determination of the Just Noticeable Difference," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 321-352.
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