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A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira

  • Adolfo Sachsida
  • Marcio Ribeiro
  • Claudio Hamilton dos Santos

Estimou-se uma curva de Phillips, com dados empilhados, para seis regiões metropolitanas brasileiras. Os resultados econométricos provenientes do uso deste novo conjunto de dados geraram três importantes conclusões: i) foi confirmada a restrição de que a soma dos coeficientes da inflação passada e da expectativa de inflação deve ser igual à unidade,proposta por Blanchard e Gali (2007); ii) ao contrário de alguns resultados anteriores para a economia brasileira, o coeficiente associado à expectativa de inflação se mostrou com magnitude muito superior ao coeficiente associado à inflação passada; e iii) a taxa de desemprego não parece ser um determinante importante da inflação. Evidências adicionais no estudo sugerem a inexistência de um trade-off de curto prazo entre inflação e desemprego na economia do país durante o período analisado.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1430.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1430
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  1. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b26, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. MINELLA André & DE FREITAS Paulo Springer & GOLDFAJN Ilan & KFOURY MUINHOS Marcelo, . "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," EcoMod2003 330700103, EcoMod.
  3. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  4. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Working Papers 05-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Sbordone, Argia, 1998. "Prices and Unit Labor Costs: A New Test of Price Stickiness," Seminar Papers 653, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Phillips Curve Revisited," Working Papers 586, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  10. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, 09.
  11. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2004. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: A New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 5, Econometric Society.
  13. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  15. David Hargreaves & Hannah Kite & Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, September.
  16. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1694, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Antonio Alberto Mazali & José Angelo Divino, 2011. "Real Wage Rigidity andthe New Phillips Curve: the Brazilian Case," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 38, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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