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A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira

Author

Listed:
  • Adolfo Sachsida
  • Marcio Ribeiro
  • Claudio Hamilton dos Santos

Abstract

Este estudo estima uma curva de Phillips com mudança de regime para a economia brasileira no período 1995-2008. De maneira geral, são três os principais resultados encontrados: i) ao contrário do que ocorreu nos resultados anteriores, ao adotarem-se especificações não lineares para a curva de Phillips, o coeficiente da expectativa de inflação torna-se superior ao coeficiente da inflação passada. Isto sugere que artigos que estimam a curva de Phillips por modelos lineares podem estar subestimando o papel das expectativas na dinâmica inflacionária; ii) os testes sugerem fortemente a rejeição da hipótese de linearidade nos parâmetros da curva de Phillips, isto é, a estimação da curva de Phillips por métodos lineares seria viesada e ineficiente; e iii) os resultados econométricos mostram pouca robustez, e alta sensibilidade, dos parâmetros a diferenças nas especificações de não linearidade ou mudanças no conjunto de proxies adotadas. Isto parece indicar a inadequação da curva de Phillips para explicar a dinâmica inflacionária na economia brasileira.

Suggested Citation

  • Adolfo Sachsida & Marcio Ribeiro & Claudio Hamilton dos Santos, 2009. "A Curva de Phillips e a Experiência Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1429, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angelo M. Fasolo & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Imperfect Rationality and Inflationary Inertia: a New Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Brazil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] b34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
    3. Gunnar Bardsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2004. "Econometric Evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 671-686, September.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    5. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "Trend inflation and inflation persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Staff Reports 270, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
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    8. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
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    10. David Hargreaves & Hannah Kite & Bernard Hodgetts, 2006. "Modelling New Zealand inflation in a Phillips curve," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, September.
    11. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1694, CESifo Group Munich.
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    13. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    14. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Inflation Persistence and the Phillips Curve Revisited," IZA Discussion Papers 2600, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. Sergio A. L. Alves & Waldyr D. Areosa, 2005. "Targets and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers Series 100, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    17. Mazali, Antonio Alberto & Divino, Jose Angelo, 2010. "Real Wage Rigidity and the New Phillips Curve: The Brazilian Case," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thiago Carlomagno Carlo & Emerson Fernandes Marçal, 2016. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4846-4860, October.
    2. Eduardo P. S. Fiuza & Barbara Caballero, 2015. "Estimations od Generic Drug Entry in Brazil using count versus ordered models," Discussion Papers 0186, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    3. Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva & Souza, Geraldo Silva & Ellery, Roberto, 2013. "An Evaluation of the tolerant to higher inflation rate in the short run by the Brazilian Central Bank in the period 2001-2012," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    4. Sachsida, Adolfo, 2013. "Inflação, Desemprego e Choques Cambiais: Uma Revisão da Literatura sobre a Curva de Phillips no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    5. Vicente da Gama Machado & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2014. "Phillips curve in Brazil: an unobserved components approach," Working Papers Series 354, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:4:a:8 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ferreira, Diego & Palma, Andreza Aparecida, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Phillips Curve: A Dynamic Model Averaging Approach for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 69(4), December.

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