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Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio José Orozco-Gallo
  • Pavel Vidal-Alejandro
  • Johana Sanabria-Domínguez
  • Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez

Abstract

Disponer de información temprana sobre la evolución de la actividad económica regional se ha convertido en una prioridad, especialmente como herramienta para evaluar choques a la economía como el ocurrido con la pandemia del Covid-19. En este estudio se construyó un indicador coincidente mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para la región Caribe, enmarcado en un modelo factorial dinámico y estimado por medio del filtro de Kalman, para el periodo comprendido entre enero de 2001 y diciembre de 2020. El indicador está compuesto por trece variables representativas de las principales actividades económicas de la región. Los resultados muestran que los movimientos experimentados por el indicador en 2020 se comportaron acorde con las medidas de aislamiento aplicadas y con las tasas de incidencia de contagios. Según cifras preliminares, en 2020 la economía del Caribe cayó en un 6,8%, equivalente al resultado nacional. En particular, el desempeno regional se vio afectado al cierre del ano por la parálisis en la actividad minera y las nuevas medidas restrictivas. **** ABSTRACT: The availability of measures of regional economic activity in a timely manner has become a priority, especially for evaluating the economic shocks provoked by the Covid-19 pandemic. In this study, we developed a monthly coincident indicator of economic activity for the Colombian Caribbean region, based on a dynamic factor model and estimated with a Kalman filter, for the period between January 2001 and December 2020. Thirteen variables enter the indicator and represent the region’s main economic activities. The results show that movements in the indicator in 2020 were associated with the lockdown policies and the incidence rates of the epidemic. Our preliminary results imply that the Caribbean economy fell by 6,8% in 2020, which is similar to the national result. By the end of 2020, the regional economy was affected mainly by the collapse in mining activity and the new lockdown measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 19285, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000102:019285
    DOI: 10.32468/dtseru.298
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indicador; filtro de Kalman; región Caribe colombiana; actividad económica; pandemia; Covid-19; Indicator; Kalman filter; Colombian Caribbean region; economic activity; pandemic; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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