Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)
This article aims at evaluating potential growth for France, Germany and the euro area during the period from after the 2007-2008 credit crisis until 2012. Such an assessment plays a central role in the determination of the structural deficit and therefore in the definition of consolidation plans. After presenting the possible effects of the crisis on potential growth identified by the literature, we use for our evaluations an unobserved component model. This helps to reconcile the so-called traditional approaches, based on the use of a production function and the statistical approaches based on filtering methods. Our evaluations show for the different areas that the crisis has had a significant impact on potential growth starting in 2009; by 2012, potential growth should remain weak. The low potential growth is caused in part by a sharp decline in labor input, particularly in France and the euro area. This decline stems mainly from an increase of structural unemployment, except in Germany.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS|
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008.
"Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2007. "Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery," BIS Working Papers 226, Bank for International Settlements.
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics; The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output; Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
- Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
- Bruno Van Pottelsberghe & Dominique Guellec, 2004.
"From R&D to productivity growth: do the institutional settings and the sources of funds of R&D matter?,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/6207, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 2004. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do the Institutional Settings and the Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 353-378, 07.
- Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe, 2004. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do the Institutional Settings and the Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," Working Papers CEB 04-010.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Guellec, Dominique & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno van, 2003. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do The Institutional Setting and The Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," IIR Working Paper 03-26, Institute of Innovation Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009.
"The Effect of Financial Crises on Potential Output: New Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
699, OECD Publishing.
- Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998.
"Detrending and business cycle facts,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
- Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000.
"The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0768, Econometric Society.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
- Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006.
"Medium-Term Business Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
- Christophe Planas & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "Does capacity utilisation help estimating the TFP cycle?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 410, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Kohler, Marion & Upper, Christian, 2009.
"Financial Crises and Economic Activity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009. "Financial crises and economic activity," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-135.
- David T. Coe & Elhanan Helpman, 1993.
"International R&D Spillovers,"
NBER Working Papers
4444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kao, Chihwa & Chiang, Min-Hsien & Chen, Bangtian, 1999.
" International R&D Spillovers: An Application of Estimation and Inference in Panel Cointegration,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 691-709, Special I.
- Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang & Bangtian Chen, 1999. "International R&D Spillovers: An Application of Estimation and Inference in Panel Cointegration," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 4, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
- Paul Romer, 1989.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
- Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
- Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 0441, European Central Bank.
- Döpke, Jörg & Chagny, Odile, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1053, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
- Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 322-344, September.
- Cécile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 247, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.