On the profitability of technical trading rules based on artificial neural networks:: Evidence from the Madrid stock market
In this paper we investigate the profitability of a simple technical trading rule based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Our results, based on applying this investment strategy to the General Index of the Madrid Stock Market, suggest that, in absence of trading costs, the technical trading rule is always superior to a buy-and-hold strategy for both "bear" market and "stable" market episodes. On the other hand, we find that the buy-and-hold strategy generates higher returns than the trading rule based on ANN only for a "bull" market subperiod.
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- Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January.
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- Blake LeBaron, "undated". "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working papers _002, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- LeBaron, B., 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreing Exchange Intervention," Working papers 9445r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA.
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- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
- Gencay Ramazan & Stengos Thanasis, 1997. "Technical Trading Rules and the Size of the Risk Premium in Security Returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, July.
- Gencay, R & Stengos, T, 1996. "Technical Trading Rules and the Size of the Risk Premium in Security Returns," Working Papers 1996-11, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Gencay, Ramazan, 1998. "Optimization of technical trading strategies and the profitability in security markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-254, May.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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