Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange Markets: Linear Versus Nonlinear Trading Rules
In this paper we assess the economic significance of the nonlinear predictability of EMS exchange rates. To that end, and using daily data for nine EMS currencies covering the 1st January 1978- 31st December 1994 period, we consider nearest-neighbour nonlinear predictors, transforming their forecasts into a technical trading rule, whose profitability has been evaluated against the traditional (linear) moving average trading rules, considering both interest rates and transaction costs. Our results suggest that in most of the cases a trading rule based on a nonlinear predictor outperform the moving average, both in terms of returns and in terms of the ideal profit and the Sharpe ratio profitability indicators.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.fedea.net|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August.
- Blake LeBaron, 1994.
"Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention,"
- LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
- Blake LeBaron, . "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working papers _002, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- LeBaron, B., 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreing Exchange Intervention," Working papers 9445r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992.
" Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Mizrach, B, 1992. "Multivariate Nearest-Neighbor Forecasts of EMS Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S151-63, Suppl. De.
- Bryon Higgins, 1993. "Was the ERM crisis inevitable?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 27-40.
- Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Oscar Bajo-Rubio, 1999. "Exchange rate volatility in the EMS before and after the fall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 717-722.
- Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986.
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Handbook of Econometrics,
in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339
- Härdle, W.K., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Discussion Paper 1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- HÄRDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Engel, Charles, 1996.
"The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001.
"Technical analysis and central bank intervention,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December.
- Christopher Neely & Paul Weller, 2000. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Working Papers 1997-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Paul Weller & Christopher Neely, 1999. "Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers wp99-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
- Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: are any fit to survive?," International Finance Discussion Papers 184, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Neftci, Salih N, 1991. "Naive Trading Rules in Financial Markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov Prediction Theory: A Study of "Technical Analysis."," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 549-71, October.
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999.
"Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
- Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada, . "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 98-17, FEDEA.
- Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May.
- William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119.
- C.L. Osler & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Lee, Chun I. & Mathur, Ike, 1996. "Trading rule profits in european currency spot cross-rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 949-962, June.
- Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1998. "Testing nonlinear forecastability in time series: Theory and evidence from the EMS," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 49-63, April.
- Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fda:fdadef:00-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.