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The Missing Intercept: A Demand Equivalence Approach

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  • Christian K. Wolf

Abstract

I give conditions under which changes in private spending are accommodated in general equilibrium exactly like changes in aggregate fiscal expenditure. Under such demand equivalence, researchers can use time series evidence on fiscal multipliers to recover the general equilibrium "missing intercept" of shocks to private spending identified in the cross section. I apply this method to deficit-financed stimulus checks, and find a) a large direct consumption spending response, and b) a fiscal multiplier of one and so a missing intercept close to zero. I also discuss the robustness of this aggregation approach to empirically plausible violations of demand equivalence.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "The Missing Intercept: A Demand Equivalence Approach," NBER Working Papers 29558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29558
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    Cited by:

    1. Cantore, Cristiano & Freund, Lukas B., 2021. "Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 58-74.
    2. Huber, Kilian, 2021. "Estimating General Equilibrium Spillovers of Large-Scale Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Stephanie Ettmeier, 2022. "No Taxation without Reallocation: The Distributional Effects of Tax Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2022, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Gerald Carlino & Thorsten Drautzburg & Robert Inman & Nicholas Zarra, 2023. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 701-737, March.
    5. Mary Amiti & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2020. "The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment," NBER Working Papers 27114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cantore, Cristiano & Ferroni, Filippo & Mumtaz, Hroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2022. "A tail of labour supply and a tale of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 989, Bank of England.
    7. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
    8. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2023. "The employment effects of collective wage bargaining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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