IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/17153.html

Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis, Daniel
  • Mertens, Karel

Abstract

We propose System Projections with Instrumental Variables (SP-IV) to estimate dynamic structural relationships. SP-IV replaces lag sequences of instruments in traditional IV with lead sequences of endogenous variables. SP-IV allows the inclusion of controls to weaken exogeneity requirements, can be more efficient than IV with lags, and allows identification over many time horizons without creating many-weak-instruments problems. SP-IV also enables the estimation of structural relationships across impulse responses obtained from local projections or vector autoregressions. We provide a bias-based test for instrument strength, and inference procedures under strong and weak identification. SP-IV outperforms competing estimators of the Phillips Curve parameters in simulations. We estimate the Phillips Curve implied by the main business cycle shock of Angeletos, Collard and Dellas (2020), and find evidence for forward-looking behavior. The data is consistent with weak but also relatively strong cyclical connections between inflation and unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Daniel & Mertens, Karel, 2022. "Dynamic Identification Using System Projections and Instrumental Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 17153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP17153
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrew J. Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens, 2023. "The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks," Working Papers 2305, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 21 Nov 2024.
    3. Andrew J. Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens, 2025. "The Social Returns to Public R&D," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 5, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.