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A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004

Author

Listed:
  • Szilard Benk

    () (Hungarian Central Bank)

  • Max Gillman

    () (Institute of Economics - Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Michal Kejak

    () (The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education of Charles University (CERGE EI))

Abstract

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994). Model velocity is stable along the balanced growth path, which features endogenous growth and decentralized banking that produces exchange credit. Positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity, as money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during the 1930s and the 1987 crashes, and again around 2003, results suggest that the money and credit shocks appear to be more important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times.

Suggested Citation

  • Szilard Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2009. "A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0923, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0923
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2015. "Non-Neutrality of Open-Market Operations," CEPR Discussion Papers 10594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Francisco Callado-Muñoz & Jana Hromcová & Natalia Utrero-González, 2014. "Openness and Technology Diffusion in Payment Systems: The Case of NAFTA," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 497-519, April.
    4. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 839-858.
    5. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Persistent Liquidity," Working Papers 1010, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    6. Basu, Parantap & Gillman, Max & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Inflation, human capital and Tobin's q," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1057-1074.
    7. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Interest Rates Rules," Working Papers 1009, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    8. Szilard Benk & Tamas Csabafi & Jing Dang & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Tuning in RBC Growth Spectra," IMF Working Papers 16/215, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, pages 1053-1104.
    10. Chang, Wen-ya & Chen, Ying-an & Chang, Juin-jen, 2013. "Growth and welfare effects of monetary policy with endogenous fertility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 117-130.
    11. Tonin, Mirco & Vlassopoulos, Michael, 2012. "Social Incentives Matter: Evidence from an Online Real Effort Experiment," AICCON Working Papers 112-2012, Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit.
    12. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," CEU Working Papers 2012_13, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 23 Jul 2012.
    13. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," Working Papers 1003, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; credit shocks; velocity and volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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