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Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Money and Banking Approach

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  • MAX GILLMAN
  • MICHAL KEJAK

Abstract

Output growth, investment and the real interest rate in long run evidence tend to be negatively affected by inflation. Theoretically, inflation acts as a human capital tax that decreases output growth and the real interest rate, but increases the investment rate, opposite of evidence. The paper resolves this puzzle by requiring exchange for investment as well as consumption. Inflation then decreases the investment rate, and still decreases both output growth and real interest up to some moderately high rate of inflation, above which increasingly low investment finally causes capital to fall relative to labor, and the real interest rate to rise.
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Suggested Citation

  • Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2011. "Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Money and Banking Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(310), pages 260-282, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:78:y:2011:i:310:p:260-282
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    Cited by:

    1. Maxime Menuet, 2019. "Fiscal rule and shock amplification : A stochastic endogenous growth model," Working Papers hal-02153887, HAL.
    2. Chang, Wen-ya & Chen, Ying-an & Chang, Juin-jen, 2013. "Growth and welfare effects of monetary policy with endogenous fertility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 117-130.
    3. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Gustavo Iglésias, 2020. "Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1147-1197, August.
    4. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2010. "A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919-2004," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 765-779, April.
    5. Berentsen, Aleksander & Rojas Breu, Mariana & Shi, Shouyong, 2012. "Liquidity, innovation and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 721-737.
    6. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Gustavo Iglésias,, 2018. "Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," CEF.UP Working Papers 1802, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    8. Venky Venkateswaran & Randall Wright, 2014. "Pledgability and Liquidity: A New Monetarist Model of Financial and Macroeconomic Activity," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 227-270.
    9. Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2014. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates, the Great Ratios, and Classical Money Demand Functions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 229-241, February.
    10. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2018. "Deficit, monetization, and economic growth: a case for multiplicity and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 819-853, June.
    11. Luintel, Kul B. & Selim, Sheikh & Bajracharya, Pushkar, 2017. "Liberalization, bankers’ motivation and productivity: A simple model with an application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 102-112.
    12. Basu, Parantap & Gillman, Max & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Inflation, human capital and Tobin's q," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1057-1074.
    13. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    14. Lu Chia-Hui & Chen Been-Lon & Hsu Mei, 2011. "The Dynamic Relationship between Inflation and Output Growth in a Cash-Constrained Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, May.
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    16. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Examination," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 1-25, September.
    17. Giovanni Cicceri & Giuseppe Inserra & Michele Limosani, 2020. "A Machine Learning Approach to Forecast Economic Recessions—An Italian Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, February.
    18. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Interest Rates Rules," Working Papers 1009, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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