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Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Banking Approach

Output growth, investment and the real interest rate are all found empirically to be negatively affected by inflation. But a seeming puzzle arises of opposite Tobin-like inflation effects because theory indicates a negative Tobin effect when investment falls and a positive Tobin effect when the real interest rate rises. We define inflation's Tobin effect more specifically in terms of the effect on the capital to effective labor ratio and resolve the puzzle by showing the simultaneous occurrence of all three negative inflation effects, on growth, investment and real interest rates, in a model calibrated to postwar US data. Here, investment along with consumption are exchanged for within a monetary endogenous growth economy with human capital and a decentralized credit-producing sector.

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Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2008/18.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision: Oct 2008
Publication status: Published in Economica, 78 (310, April 2011): 260-282 .
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/18
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Web page: http://business.cardiff.ac.uk/research/academic-sections/economics/working-papers

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  1. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January.
  2. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Technical Working Papers 0287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Byrne, Joseph P. & Davis, E. Philip, 2004. "Permanent and temporary inflation uncertainty and investment in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 271-277, November.
  4. Mansoorian, Arman & Mohsin, Mohammed, 2006. "On the employment, investment and current account effects of inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 296-313, September.
  5. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2006. " Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0604, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  6. Hancock, Diana, 1985. "The Financial Firm: Production with Monetary and Nonmonetary Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 859-80, October.
  7. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2004. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0402, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  8. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 113-136, 02.
  9. Gillman, Max & Otto, Glen, 2006. "Money Demand in General Equilibrium Endogenous Growth: Estimating the Role of a Variable Interest Elasticity," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/24, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Oct 2006.
  10. Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "Inflation and Investment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 375-397, 09.
  11. Clark, Jeffrey A, 1984. "Estimation of Economies of Scale in Banking Using a Generalized Functional Form," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 53-68, February.
  12. R. Anton Braun & Max Gillman, 2006. "Banking in General Equilibrium with an Application to Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-412, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  13. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2003. "A Revised Tobin Effect from Inflation: Relative Input Price and Capital Ratio Realignments, USA and UK, 1959-1999," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(279), pages 439-450, 08.
  14. Smith, R. Todd & van Egteren, Henry, 2005. "Inflation, investment and economic performance: The role of internal financing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1283-1303, July.
  15. Stockman, Alan C., 1981. "Anticipated inflation and the capital stock in a cash in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 387-393.
  16. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
  17. Sealey, Calvin W, Jr & Lindley, James T, 1977. "Inputs, Outputs, and a Theory of Production and Cost at Depository Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1251-66, September.
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