IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money

  • Ceri Davies

    ()

    (Cardiff Business School)

  • Max Gillman

    ()

    (Cardiff Business School and Institute of Economics Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Michal Kejak

    ()

    (The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education of Charles University (CERGE EI))

The paper presents a human-capital-based endogenous growth, cash- in-advance economy with endogenous velocity where exchange credit is produced in a decentralized banking sector, and money is supplied stochastically by the central bank. From this it derives an exact functional form for a general equilibrium 'Taylor rule'. The inflation coefficient is always greater than one when the velocity of money exceeds one; velocity growth enters the equilibrium condition as a separate variable. The paper then successfully estimates the magnitude of the coefficient on inflation from 1000 samples of Monte Carlo simulated data. This shows that it would be spurious to conclude that the central bank has a reaction function with a strong response to inflation in a 'Taylor principle' sense, since it is only meeting fiscal needs through the inflation tax. The paper also estimates several deliberately misspecified models to show how an inflation coefficient of less than one can result from model misspecification. An inflation coefficient greater than one holds theoretically along the balanced growth path equilibrium, making it a sharply robust principle based on the economy's underlying structural parameters.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econ.core.hu/file/download/mtdp/MTDP1225.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 1225.

as
in new window

Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1225
Contact details of provider: Postal: 1112 Budapest, Budaorsi ut 45.
Phone: (+36-1) 309-2652
Fax: (36-1) 319-3136
Web page: http://econ.core.hu

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  2. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
  3. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, . "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model," GSIA Working Papers 1998-22, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Sargent, Thomas & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Monetary policies and low-frequency manifestations of the quantity theory," Discussion Papers 26, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  7. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2006. " Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0604, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  8. Cosmin L. Ilut & Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms," Working Papers 10-69, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  9. Andreas Schabert, . "On the Equivalence of Money Growth and Interest Rate Policy," Working Papers 2003_6, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2003.
  10. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, 2007. "Federal Reserve Policy viewed through a Money Supply Lens," Working Papers 2007-02, Swiss National Bank.
  11. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2001. "U.S. Monetary Policy During the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
  14. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  15. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Szilard Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2009. "A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0923, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  17. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2012. "Money, Output, And Inflation In The Longer Term: Major Industrial Countries, 1880–2001," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 773-787, 07.
  19. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "Inflation, Investment and Growth: a Banking Approach," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Oct 2008.
  20. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  22. Samuel Reynard, 2004. "Financial Market Participation and the Apparent Instability of Money Demand," Working Papers 2004-01, Swiss National Bank.
  23. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  24. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565 - 615.
  25. Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2012. "Surprising comparative properties of monetary models: Results from a new model database," IMFS Working Paper Series 66, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS), Goethe University Frankfurt.
  26. Mehrling, Perry, 2006. "Mr. Woodford and the Challenge of Finance," Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 161-170, June.
  27. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules; How Precisely Can We Estimate them?," IMF Working Papers 05/148, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Patrick Fève & Stéphane Auray, 2002. "Interest Rate and Inflation in Monetary Models with Exogenous Money Growth Rule," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(1), pages 1-10.
  29. Clark, Jeffrey A, 1984. "Estimation of Economies of Scale in Banking Using a Generalized Functional Form," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 53-68, February.
  30. Kristin Van Gaasbeck & Kevin Salyer, 2007. "Taking the Monetary Implications of a Monetary Model Seriously," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(21), pages 1-7.
  31. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
  32. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-28, February.
  33. Bennett T. McCallum, 2010. "Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 107-120, March.
  34. Carl Walsh, 2001. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 609, CESifo Group Munich.
  35. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2002:i:1:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Samuel Reynard, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-07, Swiss National Bank.
  37. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December.
  38. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  40. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:21:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1225. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Adrienn Foldi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.