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Money and the Great Disinflation

Author

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  • Samuel Reynard

Abstract

Using U.S. and euro area data, this paper presents a significant and proportional relationship between money growth and subsequent inflation when accounting for equilibrium velocity movements due to inflation regimes changes. These movements, driven by money demand adjustments to low-frequency Fisherian interest rate variations, are derived from consistent U.S. and euro area money demand specifications - after contradictory coexisting results are explained. Not accounting for equilibrium velocity and interest rate movements biases cross-country and time series dynamic money growth / inflation estimated relationships, and leads to the non-proportional, non-significant, and reverse causality results found in studies that include the post-1980 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Reynard, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-07, Swiss National Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2006-07
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2006_07/source/working_paper_2006_07.n.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    2. Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oleg KITOV & Ivan KITOV, 2012. "Inflation And Unemployment In Switzerland: From 1970 To 2050," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(2(20)/ Su), pages 141-156.
    2. Sylvia Kaufmann & Samuel Reynard, 2010. "Discussion: The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 255-267, March.
    3. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
    4. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Money at Low Frequencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
    5. Ramos Francia Manuel & Noriega Antonio E. & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "The Use of Monetary Aggregates as Indicators of the Future Evolution of Consumer Prices: Monetary Growth and Inflation Target," Working Papers 2015-14, Banco de México.
    6. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
    7. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
    8. Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "On the sources of macroeconomic stability in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 40-63.
    9. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
    10. Edward Nelson, 2008. "Why Money Growth Determines Inflation in the Long Run: Answering the Woodford Critique," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1791-1814, December.
    11. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:421-432 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    13. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December.
    14. Pavel Gertler & Boris Hofmann, 2016. "Monetary facts revisited," BIS Working Papers 566, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Niall Ferguson & Andreas Schaab & Moritz Schularick, 2015. "Central Bank Balance Sheets: Expansion and Reduction since 1900," CESifo Working Paper Series 5379, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Faugere, Christophe, 2010. "Macrofoundations for A (Near) 2% Inflation Target," MPRA Paper 23491, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2010.
    17. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    18. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Interest Rates Rules," Working Papers 1009, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    19. Davies, Ceri & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/20, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    20. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2015. "Money demand estimations in Mexico and of its stability 1986-2010, as well as some examples of its uses," Working Papers 2015-13, Banco de México.
    21. Samuel Reynard, 2012. "Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences of QE after Financial Crises," Working Paper Series WP12-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    22. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2013. "A descriptive analysis of the balance sheet and monetary policy of De Nederlandsche Bank: 1900-1998 and beyond," DNB Occasional Studies 1103, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money growth; inflation; equilibrium velocity; quantity theory; money demand;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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