Inflation and unemployment in Switzerland: from 1970 to 2050
An empirical model is presented linking inflation and unemployment rate to the change in the level of labour force in Switzerland. The involved variables are found to be cointegrated and we estimate lagged linear deterministic relationships using the method of cumulative curves, a simplified version of the 1D Boundary Elements Method. The model yields very accurate predictions of the inflation rate on a three year horizon. The results are coherent with the models estimated previously for the US, Japan, France and other developed countries and provide additional validation of our quantitative framework based solely on labour force. Finally, given the importance of inflation forecasts for the Swiss monetary policy, we present a prediction extended into 2050 based on official projections of the labour force level.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Samuel Reynard, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-07, Swiss National Bank.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008.
"Phillips curve inflation forecasts,"
Conference Series ; [Proceedings],
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
- Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
- Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov & Svetlana Dolinskaya, 2007.
"Inflation as a Function of Labor Force Change Rate: Cointegration Test for the USA,"
- Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2007. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," MPRA Paper 2734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov & Svetlana A. Dolinskaya, 2008. "Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA," Papers 0811.0892, arXiv.org.
- Simone Elmer & Thomas Maag, 2009. "The Persistence of Inflation in Switzerland: Evidence from Disaggregate Data," KOF Working papers 09-235, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Hock, Thorsten & Zimmermann, Patrick, 2005. "Forecasting monetary policy in Switzerland: Some empirical assistance," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 60, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
- Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
- Libich, Jan, 2008.
"An explicit inflation target as a commitment device,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-68, March.
- Jan Libich, 2006. "An Explicit Inflation Target As A Commitment Device," CAMA Working Papers 2006-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Caesar Lack, 2006. "Forecasting Swiss inflation using VAR models," Economic Studies 2006-02, Swiss National Bank.
- Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007.
"A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland,"
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES),
Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(IV), pages 425-448, December.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
- Thorsten Hock & Patrick Zimmermann, 2005. "Forecasting Monetary Policy in Switzerland: Some Empirical Assistance," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(2), pages 201-212, August.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:47:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
- Veli YILANCI, 2008. "Are Unemployment Rates Nonstationary or Nonlinear? Evidence from 19 OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(47), pages 1-5.
- Laura Ungureanu & Ion Viorel Matei, 2007. "Nonlinear Problems In Economic Development," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 2(1(2)_Fall).
- Lisi, Gaetano, 2010.
"The unemployment volatility puzzle: the role of the underground economy,"
22689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lisi GAETANO, 2010. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: The Role Of The Underground Economy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 59-69.
- Joseph Deutsch & Yves Fluckiger & Jacques Silber, 2007.
"On Various Ways of Measuring Unemployment, with Applications to Switzerland,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
wp_509, Levy Economics Institute.
- Jacques Silber & Joseph Deutsch & Yves Flückiger, 2007. "On Various ways of Measuring Unemployment, with Applications to Switzerland," Working Papers 2007-20, FEDEA.
- Kitov, Ivan, 2007.
"Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries,"
14557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1102.5405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.