IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Inflation and unemployment in Switzerland: from 1970 to 2050

  • Oleg Kitov
  • Ivan Kitov

An empirical model is presented linking inflation and unemployment rate to the change in the level of labour force in Switzerland. The involved variables are found to be cointegrated and we estimate lagged linear deterministic relationships using the method of cumulative curves, a simplified version of the 1D Boundary Elements Method. The model yields very accurate predictions of the inflation rate on a three year horizon. The results are coherent with the models estimated previously for the US, Japan, France and other developed countries and provide additional validation of our quantitative framework based solely on labour force. Finally, given the importance of inflation forecasts for the Swiss monetary policy, we present a prediction extended into 2050 based on official projections of the labour force level.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.5405
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1102.5405.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1102.5405
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Caesar Lack, 2006. "Forecasting Swiss inflation using VAR models," Economic Studies 2006-02, Swiss National Bank.
  2. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2006. "A Two-Pillar Phillips Curve for Switzerland," Working Papers 2006-09, Swiss National Bank.
  3. Ivan Kitov & Oleg Kitov & Svetlana Dolinskaya, 2007. "Inflation as a Function of Labor Force Change Rate: Cointegration Test for the USA," Mechonomics mechonomics3, Socionet.
  4. Samuel Reynard, 2006. "Money and the Great Disinflation," Working Papers 2006-07, Swiss National Bank.
  5. Lisi, Gaetano, 2010. "The unemployment volatility puzzle: the role of the underground economy," MPRA Paper 22689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Ivan Kitov, 2007. "Inflation, Unemployment, Labor Force Change in European Counties," Mechonomics mechonomics7, Socionet.
  7. Jacques Silber & Joseph Deutsch & Yves Flückiger, 2007. "On Various ways of Measuring Unemployment, with Applications to Switzerland," Working Papers 2007-20, FEDEA.
  8. Ivan O. Kitov, 2006. "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA," Working Papers 28, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  9. Laura Ungureanu & Ion Viorel Matei, 2007. "Nonlinear Problems In Economic Development," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 2(1(2)_Fall).
  10. Libich, Jan, 2008. "An explicit inflation target as a commitment device," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-68, March.
  11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:47:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Veli YILANCI, 2008. "Are Unemployment Rates Nonstationary or Nonlinear? Evidence from 19 OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(47), pages 1-5.
  13. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV, 2010. "Dynamics Of Unemployment And Inflation In Western Europe: Solution By The 1- D Boundary Elements Method," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(2(12)/Sum), pages 94-113.
  14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips curve inflation forecasts," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
  15. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian., 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  16. Hock, Thorsten & Zimmermann, Patrick, 2005. "Forecasting monetary policy in Switzerland: Some empirical assistance," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 60, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  17. Simone Elmer & Thomas Maag, 2009. "The Persistence of Inflation in Switzerland: Evidence from Disaggregate Data," KOF Working papers 09-235, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  18. Thorsten Hock & Patrick Zimmermann, 2005. "Forecasting Monetary Policy in Switzerland: Some Empirical Assistance," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 201-212, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1102.5405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.