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A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output

In: Price Index Concepts and Measurement

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  • J. Christina Wang
  • Susanto Basu
  • John G. Fernald

Abstract

This paper addresses the proper measurement of financial service output that is not priced explicitly. It shows how to impute nominal service output from financial intermediaries' interest income, and how to construct price indices for those financial services. We model financial intermediaries as providers of financial services which resolve asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders. We embed these intermediaries in a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model where assets are priced competitively according to their systematic risk, as in the standard consumption-based capital-asset-pricing model. In this environment, we show that it is critical to take risk into account in order to measure financial output accurately. We also show that even using a risk-adjusted reference rate does not solve all the problems associated with measuring nominal financial service output. Our model allows us to address important outstanding questions in output and productivity measurement for financial firms, such as: (1) What are the correct "reference rates" to use in calculating bank output? In particular, should they take account of risk? (2) If reference rates need to be risk-adjusted, should they be ex ante or ex post rates of return? (3) What is the right price deflator for the output of financial firms? Is it just the general price index? (4) When--if ever--should we count capital gains of financial firms as part of financial service output?
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Suggested Citation

  • J. Christina Wang & Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "A General-Equilibrium Asset-Pricing Approach to the Measurement of Nominal and Real Bank Output," NBER Chapters,in: Price Index Concepts and Measurement, pages 273-320 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:5081
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Philippon, 2015. "Has the US Finance Industry Become Less Efficient? On the Theory and Measurement of Financial Intermediation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1408-1438, April.
    2. Buch, Claudia M. & Koch, Cathérine T. & Koetter, Michael, 2011. "Size, productivity, and international banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 329-334.
    3. Garner, Thesia I. & Verbrugge, Randal, 2009. "Reconciling user costs and rental equivalence: Evidence from the US consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 172-192, September.
    4. Charles Steindel, 2009. "Implications of the financial crisis for potential growth: past, present, and future," Staff Reports 408, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Basu, Susanto & Wang, J. Christina, 2013. "Technological progress, the "user cost of money," and the real output of banks," Working Papers 13-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Aoki, Shuhei, 2012. "A simple accounting framework for the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 473-494.
    7. Max Gillman & Mark N Harris & Michal Kejak, 2007. "The Interaction of Inflation and Financial Development with Endogenous Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Charles, Steindel, 2010. "The Financial Crisis and the Measurement of Financial Sector Activity," MPRA Paper 27240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bertrand Groslambert & Raphaël Chiappini & Olivier Bruno, 2015. "Bank Output Calculation in the Case of France: What Do New Methods Tell About the Financial Intermediation Services in the Aftermath of the Crisis?," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-32, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    10. Aled ab Iorwerth, 2012. "To Capture Production or Wellbeing? A Review Article on Towards Measuring the Volume Output of Education and Health Services: A Handbook," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 23, pages 55-70, Spring.
    11. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. " Inflation, Financial Development and Human Capital-Based Endogenous Growth: an Explanation of Ten Empirical Findings," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0703, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    12. Chaffai, Mohamed & Dietsch, Michel, 2015. "Modelling and measuring business risk and the resiliency of retail banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 173-182.
    13. Burgess, Stephen, 2011. "Measuring financial sector output and its contribution to UK GDP," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 234-246.
    14. Dennis Fixler & Kim Zieschang, 2016. "Producing Liquidity," CEPA Working Papers Series WP022016, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    15. Groslambert, Bertrand & Chiappini, Raphaël & Bruno, Olivier, 2016. "Desperately seeking cash: Evidence from bank output measurement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 495-507.
    16. Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Measuring Productivity in the System of National Accounts," Economics working papers diewert-07-11-16-12-39-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 16 Nov 2007.
    17. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    18. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2008. "Information and communications technology as a general purpose technology: evidence from U.S. industry data," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    19. Kimberly D. Zieschang, 2016. "FISIM Accounting," CEPA Working Papers Series WP012016, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    20. Aled ab Iorwerth, 2006. "How to Measure Government Productivity: A Review Article on 'Measurement of Government Output and Productivity for the National Accounts' (The Atkinson Report)," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 13, pages 57-74, Fall.
    21. Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer & Bart van Ark, 2008. "Data for Productivity Measurement in Market Services: An International Comparison," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 16, pages 72-81, Spring.
    22. Erwin Diewert, 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based National Accounts: Comment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 36-45, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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