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Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects

  • Szilárd Benk

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Max Gillman

    (Central European University)

  • Michal Kejak

    (CERGE-EI)

The paper constructs credit shocks using data and the solution to a monetary business cycle model. The model extends the standard stochastic cash-in-advance economy by including the production of credit that serves as an alternative to money in exchange. Shocks to goods productivity, money, and credit productivity are constructed robustly using the solution to the model and quarterly US data on key variables. The contribution of the credit shock to US GDP movements is found, and this is interpreted in terms of changes in banking legislation during the US financial deregulation era. The results put forth the credit shock as a candidate shock that matters in determining GDP, including in the sense of Uhlig (2003). (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2005.01.012
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Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 668-687

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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:668-687
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  1. Harald Uhlig, 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 101, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Emilio Espino & Thomas Hintermaier, 2004. "Occasionally Binding Collateral Constraints in RBC Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 194, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
  4. Berger, Allen N, 2003. " The Economic Effects of Technological Progress: Evidence from the Banking Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 141-76, April.
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  6. Parkin, Michael, 1988. "A method for determining whether parameters in aggregative models are structural," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 215-252, January.
  7. Jayaratne, Jith & Strahan, Philip E, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 639-70, August.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 4188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "The real effects of U.S. banking deregulation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 111-128.
  10. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January.
  11. Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
  12. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2004. "The Demand for Bank Reserves and Other Monetary Aggregates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 518-533, July.
  13. Mark G. Guzman, 2003. "Slow but steady progress toward financial deregulation," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1, 6-9, 12.
  14. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
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  16. Gillman, Max & Otto, Glenn, 2003. "Money demand in a banking time economy," HWWA Discussion Papers 254, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  17. Li, Victor E, 2000. "Household Credit and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 335-56, August.
  18. Michal Kejak & Szilard Benk & Max Gillman, 2004. "Credit Shocks in a Monetary Business Cycle," 2004 Meeting Papers 133, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Ingram, Beth F. & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1997. "Using theory for measurement: An analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 435-456, December.
  20. repec:dgr:kubcen:199597 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 1995-97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  22. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
  23. Einarsson, Tor & Marquis, Milton H, 2001. "Bank Intermediation over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 876-99, November.
  24. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
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