IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/v8y2005i3p668-687.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects

Author

Listed:
  • Szilárd Benk

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Max Gillman

    (Central European University)

  • Michal Kejak

    (CERGE-EI)

Abstract

The paper constructs credit shocks using data and the solution to a monetary business cycle model. The model extends the standard stochastic cash-in-advance economy by including the production of credit that serves as an alternative to money in exchange. Shocks to goods productivity, money, and credit productivity are constructed robustly using the solution to the model and quarterly US data on key variables. The contribution of the credit shock to US GDP movements is found, and this is interpreted in terms of changes in banking legislation during the US financial deregulation era. The results put forth the credit shock as a candidate shock that matters in determining GDP, including in the sense of Uhlig (2003). (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 668-687, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:668-687
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2005.01.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2005.01.012
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full texts is restricted to ScienceDirect subscribers and ScienceDirect institutional members. See http://www.sciencedirect.com/ for details.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.red.2005.01.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January.
    2. Mark G. Guzman, 2003. "Slow but steady progress toward financial deregulation," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jan, pages 1,6-9,12.
    3. Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
    4. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    5. Parkin, Michael, 1988. "A method for determining whether parameters in aggregative models are structural," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 215-252, January.
    6. Berger, Allen N, 2003. "The Economic Effects of Technological Progress: Evidence from the Banking Industry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 141-176, April.
    7. Jones, Larry E & Manuelli, Rodolfo E & Rossi, Peter E, 1993. "Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 485-517, June.
    8. Emilio Espino & Thomas Hintermaier, 2004. "Occasionally Binding Collateral Constraints in RBC Models," 2004 Meeting Papers 449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Gillman, Max & Otto, Glenn, 2003. "Money Demand in a Banking Time Economy," Discussion Paper Series 26221, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    10. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
    11. Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Hugo Hopenhayn, 2002. "Argentine Great Depression: 1975-1990," Department of Economics Working Papers 026, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    12. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2003. "A Revised Tobin Effect from Inflation: Relative Input Price and Capital Ratio Realignments, USA and UK, 1959-1999," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(279), pages 439-450, August.
    13. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    14. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, May.
    15. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Michal Kejak & Szilard Benk & Max Gillman, 2004. "Credit Shocks in a Monetary Business Cycle," 2004 Meeting Papers 133, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 1995-97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    18. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Sum), pages 2-10.
    19. Jith Jayaratne & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 639-670.
    20. Einarsson, Tor & Marquis, Milton H, 2001. "Bank Intermediation over the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 876-899, November.
    21. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 247-270, January.
    22. Ingram, Beth F. & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1997. "Using theory for measurement: An analysis of the cyclical behavior of home production," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 435-456, December.
    23. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2004. "The Demand for Bank Reserves and Other Monetary Aggregates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 518-533, July.
    24. Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "The real effects of U.S. banking deregulation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Jul), pages 111-128.
    25. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Li, Victor E, 2000. "Household Credit and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 335-356, August.
    27. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Other publications TiSEM cc1b2469-9d2f-445a-a2b3-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    28. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, July.
    29. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "A Comparison Of Exchange Economies Within A Monetary Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 542-562, July.
    2. Benk, Szil rd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2008. "US Volatility Cycles of Output and Inflation, 1919-2004: A Money and Banking Approach to a Puzzle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/28, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Max Gillman & Mark N Harris & Michal Kejak, 2007. "The Interaction of Inflation and Financial Development with Endogenous Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "A Credit-Banking Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    7. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2010. "A banking explanation of the US velocity of money: 1919-2004," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 765-779, April.
    8. Gillman Max, 2020. "The welfare cost of inflation with banking time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Masaru Inaba, 2006. "Borrowing constraints and protracted recessions," Discussion papers 06011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2004. "Granger causality of the inflation–growth mirror in accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 653-681, December.
    11. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    12. Paul Beaudry & Dana Galizia & Franck Portier, 2018. "Reconciling Hayek’s and Keynes’ Views of Recessions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 119-156.
    13. Canton, E.J.F., 1997. "Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Model of Endogenous Growth," Discussion Paper 1997-63, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Ellen R. M cG rattan & Lee E. Ohanian, 2010. "Does Neoclassical Theory Account For The Effects Of Big Fiscal Shocks? Evidence From World War Ii," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(2), pages 509-532, May.
    15. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores, 2012. "The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit," CEPR Discussion Papers 9269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Kirill Shakhnov, 2015. "Belarusian Business Cycle in Cross-country Comparison: Industry and Aggregate Data," BEROC Working Paper Series 30, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    17. Vlieghe, Gertjan W, 2007. "Imperfect credit markets: implications for monetary policy," MPRA Paper 12957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Canton, E.J.F., 1997. "Economic growth and business cycles," Other publications TiSEM 7b903e18-d700-44d6-a7c0-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2012. "Was the New Deal Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 524-555, February.
    20. Canton, Erik, 2001. "Fiscal policy in a stochastic model of endogenous growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-47, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; credit shocks; financial deregulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:8:y:2005:i:3:p:668-687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.