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Belarusian Business Cycle in Cross-country Comparison: Industry and Aggregate Data

Author

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  • Kirill Shakhnov

    ()

Abstract

The paper documents stylized facts about Belarusian business cycle based on aggregate and industry data and puts it into an international content. First, the aggregate fluctuations in Belarus are mostly driven by the wedge, which resembles a time-varying investment tax. Second, the fluctuation in relative prices of an industry is typically more important than volume fluctuation. Furthermore, the impact of price fluctuations is partially o ffset by volume fluctuation. Third, the aggregate cycle is smoother than the industry-speci fic one. In particular, agriculture, construction and fi nance experience a very sharp drop in a recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill Shakhnov, 2015. "Belarusian Business Cycle in Cross-country Comparison: Industry and Aggregate Data," BEROC Working Paper Series 30, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
  • Handle: RePEc:bel:wpaper:30
    as

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    File URL: http://eng.beroc.by/webroot/delivery/files/Shahnov_BEROCwp_no30.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brinca, Pedro, 2014. "Distortions in the neoclassical growth model: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    3. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991. "Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
    4. Dzmitry Kruk & Kateryna Bornukova, 2013. "Belarusian Economic Growth Decomposition," BEROC Working Paper Series 24, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bussiness cycle; industry data; Belarus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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