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On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence

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  • Agnello, Luca
  • Nerlich, Carolin

Abstract

We measure the severity of recessions as a function of their amplitude and duration. Within a quantile regression framework, we assess what causes economic downturns to be more or less severe. We find that the most severe downturns have striking similarities regarding cumulated domestic credit and large current account deficits.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnello, Luca & Nerlich, Carolin, 2012. "On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 149-155.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:1:p:149-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, April.
    2. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    5. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, January.
    6. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    2. Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 641-653.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 358-362.
    4. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    5. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
    6. repec:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:54-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Philip Wilms & Job Swank & Jakob de Haan, 2014. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," DNB Working Papers 437, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.
    9. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    10. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    11. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Can Fiscal Policy Stimulus Boost Economic Recovery?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1045-1066.
    12. Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2015. "A global house of debt effect? Mortgages and post-crisis recessions in fifty economies," Research Report 15009-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Crises; Quantile regression;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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