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Financial shocks and the US business cycle

  • Charles Nolan

    ()

  • Christoph Thoenissen

    ()

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector in post-war US business cycles. We find that financial shocks are very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks. The financial shock invariably remains contractionary for sometime after recessions have ended. The shock accounts for a large part of the variance of GDP and is strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium. Second-moments comparisons across variants of the model with and without a (stochastic) FA mechanism suggests the stochastic FA model helps us understand the data.

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File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/wp0810.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 200810.

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Date of creation: 15 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0810
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
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  1. Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
  2. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," MNB Working Papers 2007/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  3. Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & André KURMANN, 2002. "Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 02.10, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  4. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, 03.
  5. William Blankenau & M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Staff Reports 94, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Ferre De Graeve, 2006. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 84, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  9. Robert Townsend, 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Staff Report 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  11. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  12. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money And Monetary Policy In Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 88-122, 09.
  13. Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Fleshing out the monetary transmission mechanism: output composition and the role of financial frictions," Working Paper Series 0500, European Central Bank.
  14. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," Working Papers 279, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  15. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
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