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Input Price Shocks and the Slowdown in Economic Growth: The Case of U.K.Manufacturing

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  • Michael Bruno
  • Jeffrey Sachs

Abstract

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of input price shocks on economic growth, with a focus on United Kingdom manufacturing in the 1970s. The theoretical model predicts a discrete decline in out- put and productivity after an input price rise, and a longer-run slowdown in productivity growth, real wage growth, and capital accumulation. These features characterize the United Kingdom and most other OECD economies after 1973. The empirical results confirm the important role of input prices in recent U.K. adjustment, but also point to an important role for other supply and demand factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Input Price Shocks and the Slowdown in Economic Growth: The Case of U.K.Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 0851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0851
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. Grubb & R. Jackman & R. Layard, 1982. "Causes of the Current Stagflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 707-730.
    2. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 845-859.
    3. K. W. Rothschild, 1982. "Stagflation," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 8(2), pages 183-194.
    4. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1979. "Engineering and Econometric Interpretations of Energy-Capital Complementarity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 342-354, June.
    5. Oulton, Nicholas, 1978. "Explaining aggregate investment in Britain : The importance of Tobin's Q," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 253-257.
    6. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    7. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dividend taxes, corporate investment, and `Q'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 135-167, November.
    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1979. "Wages, Profits, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(2), pages 269-332.
    9. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    11. Oulton, Nicholas, 1981. "Aggregate Investment and Tobin's Q: The Evidence from Britain," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 177-202, July.
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