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The Implications of Natural Resource Exports for Nonresource Trade


  • Torfinn Harding
  • Anthony J Venables


Foreign exchange windfalls such as those from natural resource revenues change nonresource exports, imports, and the capital account. The paper studies the balance between these responses and shows that the response to $1 of resource revenue is, for our preferred estimates, to decrease nonresource exports by 74 cents and increase imports by 23 cents, implying a negligible effect on foreign savings. The negative per $1 impact on exports is larger for manufactures than for other sectors, and particularly large for internationally mobile manufacturing sectors. Although standard Dutch disease analysis points to contraction of the tradable sector as a whole, division into nonresource exports and imports is important if, as suggested by much development literature, a higher share of exports to GDP is associated with faster growth. The large negative impact of resources on these exports points to the difficulty resource-rich economies face in diversifying their exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Torfinn Harding & Anthony J Venables, 2016. "The Implications of Natural Resource Exports for Nonresource Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(2), pages 268-302, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:64:y:2016:i:2:p:268-302

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Addison,Tony & Boly,Amadou & Mveyange,Anthony Francis, 2017. "The impact of mining on spatial inequality recent evidence from Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7960, The World Bank.
    2. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    3. repec:eee:worbus:v:53:y:2018:i:1:p:85-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe & Wessel N. Vermeulen, 2015. "Dutch Disease and the Mitigation Effect of Migration: Evidence from Canadian Provinces," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1574-1615, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)


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