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The Inflationary Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Targeting via Accumulation of Reserves


  • Kirill Sosunov

    (Higher School of Economics)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    () (New Economic School)


The paper investigates the ability of monetary authorities to keep the real exchange rate undervalued over the long run by implementing a policy of accumulating foreign exchange reserves. We consider a model of a three-sector, small, open economy, where the central bank continuously purchases foreign currency reserves and compare the results to Russian and Chinese economies in recent years. Both countries appear to pursue reserve accumulation policies. We find a clear trade-o between the steady state levels of the real exchange rate and inflation. After calibration, the model predicts an 8.5% real undervaluation of the Russian currency and a 13.7% undervaluation of the Chinese currency. Predicted inflation is found to match observed levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "The Inflationary Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Targeting via Accumulation of Reserves," Working Papers w0082, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0082

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    13. Ivanova Nadezhda, 2005. "Estimation of own- and cross-price elasticities of disaggregated imported and domestic goods in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-13e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?," Working Papers w0083, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    2. Zubarev, Andrey V. & Polbin, Andrey V., 2016. "Estimation of Macroeconomic Effects from the Decline in Oil Export Duty," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 8-35, December.
    3. repec:nos:voprec:2017-04-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Моделирование Реального Курса Рубля В Условиях Изменения Режима Денежно-Кредитной Политики
      [Modeling the real ruble exchange rate under monetary policy regime change]
      ," MPRA Paper 78139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Polbin, Andrey, 2014. "Econometric estimation of a structural macroeconomic model for the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 3-29.
    6. Zubarev, Andrey & Polbin, Andrey, 2017. "Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Reducing the Export Duty on Oil on the Russian Economy within the Framework of the General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 051734, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    7. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.

    More about this item


    Real exchange rate targeting; foreign exchange reserves; Dutch disease;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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