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Financial Conditions Indexes

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Abstract

This paper provides an exposition of the nature, means of estimation and uses of Financial Conditions Indexes (FCIs) and their relationship to the more common Monetary Conditions Indexes (MCIs) that are used by market analysts, international organisations and central banks. Using panel datasets for Western Europe we explore how asset prices, particularly house and stock prices, can provide useful additional indicators of future changes in output and inflation. We find a clear role for house prices but a poorly determined relationship for stock prices. Unfortunately the most useful role for FCIs comes from their incorporation of high frequency data and the opportunity this gives for extracting information about changes in market expectations for inflation and output. This helps market participants make judgements about likely central bank reactions and helps central banks assess the stance of policy between forecasts. While stock prices are high frequency, house prices are not. At quarterly frequency central banks in particular will want to use traditional economic forecasting methods and summary indicators like FCIs will have only a limited role. We illustrate how such an FCI can be used, drawing on monthly data for Finland.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayes, David G. & Viren , Matti, 2002. "Financial Conditions Indexes," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 55(4), pages 521-550.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0176
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Chia-Lin, 2015. "Modelling a latent daily Tourism Financial Conditions Index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 113-126.
    2. Umit Bulut, 2016. "Do Financial Conditions have a Predictive Power on Inflation in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 621-628.
    3. Kirsten Thompson & Renee Van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Identifying an index of financial conditions for South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 256-274, June.
    4. Nicolaas van der Wath, 2016. "Gauging financial conditions in South Africa," Working Papers 10/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    5. Par Osterholm, 2010. "The effect on the Swedish real economy of the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 265-274.
    6. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 29(66), pages 174-220, December.
    7. Andrzej Toroj, 2008. "Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland," Working Papers 27, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    8. Wai-Ching Poon, 2010. "A monetary policy rule: The augmented Monetary Conditions Index for Philippines using UECM and bounds tests," Monash Economics Working Papers 04-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland.
    10. David Mayes, 2011. "The future of financial markets: financial crisis avoidance," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-101, February.
    11. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2009. "Changes in behaviour under EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 751-759, July.
    12. Broga, Kristijonas M. & Viegas, Eduardo & Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft, 2016. "Model analysis of the link between interest rates and crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 225-238.
    13. Kimberly Beaton & René Lalonde & Corinne Luu, 2009. "A Financial Conditions Index for the United States," Discussion Papers 09-11, Bank of Canada.
    14. Hartmann, Philipp & Hubrich, Kirstin & Kremer, Manfred & Tetlow, Robert J., 2013. "Melting down: Systemic financial instability and the macroeconomy," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80487, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Mirna Dumičić, 2016. "Financial Stability Indicators – The Case of Croatia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 5(1), pages 113-140.
    16. repec:agr:journl:v:3(612):y:2017:i:3(612):p:147-172 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-62 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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