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A Tourism Conditions Index

This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the multivariate BEKK model for four TCI indicators to predict specific tourism and economic environmental indicators for Taiwan. The foundation of the TCI is the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which is derived from the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). The empirical findings show that TCI weighted by spillovers reveal greater significance in forecasting the Composite Index (CI), an economic environmental indicator, than the Tourism Industry Index (TII), which is an existing indicator for the tourism industry that is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Moreover, previous values of the alternative TCI and TII are shown to contain useful information in predicting both tourism and economic environmental factors. Overall, the new Tourism Conditions Index is straightforward to use and also provides useful insights in predicting tourism arrivals and the current economic environment.

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File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1403.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 14/03.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:14/03
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  1. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know About the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," KIER Working Papers 870, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Troy Matheson, 2011. "Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 11/93, International Monetary Fund.
  3. repec:dgr:uvatin:20130078 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Roengchai Tansuchat & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Crude Oil Hedging Strategies Using Dynamic Multivariate GARCH," Working Papers in Economics 10/03, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  6. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
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