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A Tourism Conditions Index

  • Chia-Lin Chang


    (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Hui-Kuang Hsu

    (Department of Finance and Banking National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.)

This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the multivariate BEKK model for four TCI indicators to predict specific tourism and economic environmental indicators for Taiwan. The foundation of the TCI is the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which is derived from the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). The empirical findings show that TCI weighted by spillovers reveal greater significance in forecasting the Composite Index (CI), an economic environmental indicator, than the Tourism Industry Index (TII), which is an existing indicator for the tourism industry that is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Moreover, previous values of the alternative TCI and TII are shown to contain useful information in predicting both tourism and economic environmental factors. Overall, the new Tourism Conditions Index is straightforward to use and also provides useful insights in predicting tourism arrivals and the current economic environment.

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 2014-01.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1401
Note: For financial support, the first author is most grateful to the National Science Council, Taiwan, and the third author wishes to acknowledge the Australian Research Council and the National Science Council, Taiwan. **Corresponding author: Tel: +886 (04)22840350 ext 309; Fax: +886(04)22860255
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  1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  2. Troy Matheson, 2011. "Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 11/93, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Caporin, M. & McAleer, M.J., 2013. "Ten Things You Should Know About the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Representation," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  4. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Tansuchat, Roengchai, 2011. "Crude oil hedging strategies using dynamic multivariate GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 912-923, September.
  5. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-43.
  7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
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