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The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis

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  • Österholm, Pär

    (National Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish real economy. In order to do this, an index which describes the financial conditions of the Swedish economy is developed. The index indicates that domestic Swedish financial conditions have deteriorated substan-tially during 2008 and are now at the highest level since the crisis of the early 1990’s. A Bayesian VAR model with both US and Swedish variables is used to assess the quantitative effects of the financial crisis on Swedish real GDP growth. Results suggest that the Swedish economy will grow substantially slower in the next couple of years due to the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Österholm, Pär, 2009. "The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 110, National Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0110
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "A U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Putting Credit Where Credit is Due," IMF Working Papers 2008/161, International Monetary Fund.
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    8. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2008. "A Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model with Informative Steady‐state Priors for the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 449-465, December.
    9. Mayes, David G. & Viren , Matti, 2002. "Financial Conditions Indexes," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 55(4), pages 521-550.
    10. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2006. "An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 951-975, November.
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    12. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2016. "Effects of US policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 443-462, March.
    2. Gustafsson, Peter & Stockhammar, Pär & Österholm, Pär, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of a decline in housing prices in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 242-255.
    3. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP growth; Bayesian VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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