Detecting structural breaks and identifying risk factors in hedge fund returns: A Bayesian approach
Extending previous work on asset-based style factor models, this paper proposes a model that allows for the presence of structural breaks in hedge fund return series. We consider a Bayesian approach to detecting structural breaks occurring at unknown times and identifying relevant risk factors to explain the monthly return variation. Exact and efficient Bayesian inference for the unknown number and positions of the breaks is performed by using filtering recursions similar to those of the forward-backward algorithm. Existing methods of testing for structural breaks are also used for comparison. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in several hedge fund indices; our results are consistent with market events and episodes that caused substantial volatility in hedge fund returns during the last decade.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel, 2004. "Hedge Funds and the Technology Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 2013-2040, October.
- Giamouridis, Daniel & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2007. "Hedge fund portfolio construction: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 199-217, January.
- Kosowski, Robert & Naik, Narayan Y. & Teo, Melvyn, 2007. "Do hedge funds deliver alpha? A Bayesian and bootstrap analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 229-264, April.
- Franklin R. Edward, 1999. "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 189-210, Spring.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998.
"Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models,"
Cahiers de recherche
9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Amin, Gaurav S. & Kat, Harry M., 2003.
"Hedge Fund Performance 1990–2000: Do the “Money Machines” Really Add Value?,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 251-274, June.
- Gaurav Amin & Harry. M Kat, 2001. "Hedge Fund Performance 1990-2000- Do the "Money Machines" Really Add Value?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2001-05, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Sep 2001.
- Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Vrontos, Ioannis D. & Giamouridis, Daniel, 2008. "Hedge fund pricing and model uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 741-753, May.
- Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
- Mark Mitchell, 2001. "Characteristics of Risk and Return in Risk Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2135-2175, December.
- Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
- Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
- Kouwenberg, Roy & Ziemba, William T., 2007. "Incentives and risk taking in hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3291-3310, November.
- Achim Zeileis, 2004.
"Alternative boundaries for CUSUM tests,"
Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 123-131, January.
- Tom Doan, . "CUSUMTESTS: RATS procedure to compute and display CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00045, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:11:p:2471-2481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.