A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies
This paper proposes a model that allows for nonlinear risk exposures of hedge funds to various risk factors. We introduce a flexible threshold regression model and develop a Bayesian approach for model selection and estimation of the thresholds and their unknown number. In particular, we present a computationally flexible Markov chain Monte Carlo stochastic search algorithm which identifies relevant risk factors and/or threshold values. Our analysis of several hedge fund returns reveals that different strategies exhibit nonlinear relations to different risk factors, and that the proposed threshold regression model improves our ability to evaluate hedge fund performance.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Do Market Timing Hedge Funds Time the Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 827-856, December.
- Giannikis, D. & Vrontos, I.D. & Dellaportas, P., 2008. "Modelling nonlinearities and heavy tails via threshold normal mixture GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1549-1571, January.
- Ding, Bill & Shawky, Hany A. & Tian, Jianbo, 2009. "Liquidity shocks, size and the relative performance of hedge fund strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 883-891, May.
- Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Vrontos, Ioannis D. & Giamouridis, Daniel, 2008. "Hedge fund pricing and model uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 741-753, May.
- Darolles, Serge & Gourieroux, Christian, 2010.
"Conditionally fitted Sharpe performance with an application to hedge fund rating,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 578-593, March.
- Serge Darolles & Christian Gourieroux, 2010. "Conditionally fitted Sharpe performance with an application to hedge fund rating," Post-Print halshs-00677727, HAL.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2009.
"Are "Market Neutral" Hedge Funds Really Market Neutral?,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2295-2330, July.
- Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Are "market neutral" hedge funds really market neutral?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24819, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Ping-Huang Chou & Huimin Chung & Erh-Yin Sun, 2005. "Detecting mutual fund timing ability using the threshold model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(13), pages 829-834.
- K. J. Martijn Cremers, 2002. "Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1223-1249.
- Mark Mitchell, 2001. "Characteristics of Risk and Return in Risk Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2135-2175, December.
- Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Vrontos, Ioannis D. & Vrontos, Spyridon D., 2009. "Quantile regression analysis of hedge fund strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 264-279, March.
- Wegener, Christian & von Nitzsch, Rüdiger & Cengiz, Cetin, 2010. "An advanced perspective on the predictability in hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2694-2708, November.
- Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
- Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2007.
"Dynamic Risk Exposure in Hedge Funds,"
2007_17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
- Avramov, Doron, 2002. "Stock return predictability and model uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 423-458, June.
- Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
- Meligkotsidou, Loukia & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2008. "Detecting structural breaks and identifying risk factors in hedge fund returns: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2471-2481, November.
- Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Eling, Martin & Faust, Roger, 2010. "The performance of hedge funds and mutual funds in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1993-2009, August.
- Alessio Sancetta & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "New test statistics for market timing with applications to emerging markets hedge funds," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 419-443.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:6:p:1399-1414. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.