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New test statistics for market timing with applications to emerging markets hedge funds

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  • Alessio Sancetta
  • Stephen Satchell

Abstract

A new framework is provided for identifying market timing. The analysis focuses on the local joint history of the hedge fund with the benchmark. The approach is fully nonparametric. Therefore, it has the advantage of avoiding the misspecification problems so common in this literature. The test statistic is some rank preserving function of a second-order U-process. This empirical process allows one to define a set of statistics for market timing. The relevant asymptotic distribution is detailed. Some of these statistics are used to study the timing component of emerging markets funds using the 1999 dataset of Hwang and Satchell.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Sancetta & Stephen Satchell, 2005. "New test statistics for market timing with applications to emerging markets hedge funds," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 419-443.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:11:y:2005:i:5:p:419-443
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847042000286694
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
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    6. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E, 1999. "Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher Moments," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 271-296, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eling, Martin & Faust, Roger, 2010. "The performance of hedge funds and mutual funds in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1993-2009, August.
    2. Giannikis, Dimitrios & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2011. "A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1399-1414, June.
    3. Jing Zhang & Wei Zhang & Youwei Li & Xu Feng, 2022. "The role of hedge funds in the asset pricing: evidence from China," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 219-243, January.

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