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New Test Statistics for Market Timing with Application to Emerging markets

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  • A. Sancetta
  • Satchell, S.E.

Abstract

We provide a new framework for identifying timing. Our analysis focuses on the smoothed joint history of the fund with the benchmark. The approach is fully non-parametric. Therefore, it has the advantage of avoiding the misspecification problems so common in this literature. The test statistic is some rank preserving function of a second order U-process. This empirical process allows us to define a set of statistics for market timing. We state the relevant asymptotic distribution. Some of these statistics are used to study the timing component of emerging markets funds using the dataset of Hwang and Satchell (1999).

Suggested Citation

  • A. Sancetta & Satchell, S.E., 2002. "New Test Statistics for Market Timing with Application to Emerging markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0222, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0222
    Note: EM
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    2. Kon, Stanley J, 1983. "The Market-Timing Performance of Mutual Fund Managers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 323-347, July.
    3. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
    4. Roll, Richard, 1978. "Ambiguity when Performance is Measured by the Securities Market Line," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1051-1069, September.
    5. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E, 1999. "Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher Moments," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(4), pages 271-296, October.
    6. Glosten, L. R. & Jagannathan, R., 1994. "A contingent claim approach to performance evaluation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-160, January.
    7. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "A Study of Monthly Mutual Fund Returns and Performance Evaluation Techniques," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 419-444, September.
    8. Cumby, Robert E & Glen, Jack D, 1990. "Evaluating the Performance of International Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 497-521, June.
    9. Jagannathan, Ravi & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1986. "Assessing the Market Timing Performance of Managed Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 217-235, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market timing; emerging markets; U-process; Kendall’s Tau; invariance principle; strong mixing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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