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Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?

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  • Felices, Guillermo
  • Wieladek, Tomasz

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent to which common factors underlie indicators of vulnerability to financial crises in emerging market economies (EMEs) and whether this link is changing over time. We use a Bayesian dynamic common factor model to estimate their common component in a sample of up to 41 countries including both developed as well as emerging economies. This permits us to interpret the component in common to both of them as a global factor. We introduce time variation into the model to investigate whether indicators are decoupling from global factors over time. While decoupling can be observed in a few cases, the exposure to global factors in most countries tends to fluctuate around the mean. Broadly speaking then, the answer is no.

Suggested Citation

  • Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:2:p:321-331
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.06.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Anatoly A. Peresetsky & Ruslan I. Yakubov, 2017. "Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 152-169.
    2. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    3. Edgardo Cayon & Susan Thorp, 2014. "Financial Autarchy as Contagion Prevention: The Case of Colombian Pension Funds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 122-139, May.
    4. Korhonen, Iikka & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Extracting global stochastic trend from non-synchronous data," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    6. Durdyev, Ruslan & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2014. "Autocorrelation in the global stochastic trend," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 35(3), pages 39-58.
    7. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2016. "Evaluation of the Federal Reserve's financial-crisis timeline," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 350-355.
    8. repec:eee:ecosta:v:5:y:2018:i:c:p:67-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Köksal, Bülent & Orhan, Mehmet, 2012. "Market risk of developed and developing countries during the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 37523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Ortega, Juan-Pablo & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility forecasting using global stochastic financial trends extracted from non-synchronous data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 67-82.
    11. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 30.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Bayesian dynamic common factor models; Decoupling;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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