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Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?

Author

Listed:
  • Anatoly A. Peresetsky
  • Ruslan I. Yakubov

Abstract

In this paper, a Kalman filter-type model is used to extract a global stochastic trend from discrete non-synchronous data on daily stock market index returns from different markets. The model allows for the autocorrelation in the global stochastic trend, which means that its increments are predictable. It does not necessarily mean the predictability of market returns, since the global trend is unobservable. The performance of the model for the forecast of market returns is explored for three markets: Japan, UK, USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Anatoly A. Peresetsky & Ruslan I. Yakubov, 2017. "Autocorrelation in an unobservable global trend: does it help to forecast market returns?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 152-169.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:7:y:2017:i:1/2:p:152-169
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    Cited by:

    1. Grigoryeva, Lyudmila & Ortega, Juan-Pablo & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility forecasting using global stochastic financial trends extracted from non-synchronous data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 67-82.
    2. repec:rim:rimwps:18-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Григорьев Р.А., 2019. "Одновременные Эффекты Несинхронных Временных Рядов: Проблемы Var-Модели," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 118-129, апрель.
    4. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.
    5. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2018. "On the determinants of bitcoin returns: A LASSO approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 235-240.

    More about this item

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    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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