Are EME indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?
This paper assesses the extent to which common factors underlie indicators of vulnerability to financial crises in emerging market economies and whether this link is changing over time. We use a Bayesian dynamic common factor model to estimate their common component in a sample of up to 41 countries including both developed as well as emerging economies. This permits us to interpret the component in common to both of them as a global factor. We introduce time-variation into the model to investigate whether indicators are decoupling from global factors over time. While decoupling can be observed in a few cases, the exposure to global factors in most countries tends to fluctuate around the mean. Broadly speaking then, the answer is no.
|Date of creation:||21 Feb 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008.
"Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, 05.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008. "Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008.
"Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.
- Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992.
"Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors,"
IMF Working Papers
92/62, International Monetary Fund.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2003.
"The unholy trinity of financial contagion,"
13878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.