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Emerging Asia's growth and integration: how autonomous are business cycles?

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  • Rüffer, Rasmus
  • Sánchez, Marcelo
  • Shen, Jian-Guang

Abstract

Against the background of the rapid integration of emerging Asia into the global economy, this paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in driving individual emerging economies in Asia. We estimate VAR models for ten countries over the period 1979Q1- 2003Q4, controlling for external factors, and use sign restrictions to identify structural domestic shocks. Variance decompositions indicate that Asian emerging economies are to a large part driven by external developments, and even more so employing a more recent sample. We analyse to what extent structural domestic shocks exhibit a regional dimension by comparing shocks across countries using correlation and principal component analysis. The extent of regional co-movement between structural shocks is relatively limited. While the principal components analysis indicates a moderate increase in co-movement over time, the correlation analysis finds a decline. This may reflect a broadening of regional integration at the expense of bilateral economic ties. JEL Classification: F15, F02, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Rüffer, Rasmus & Sánchez, Marcelo & Shen, Jian-Guang, 2007. "Emerging Asia's growth and integration: how autonomous are business cycles?," Working Paper Series 715, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007715
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp715.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kirstin Hubrich & Guenter Beck & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Regional Inflation Dynamics within and across Euro Area Countries and a Comparison with the US," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600037, EcoMod.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:3:p:430-454 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    3. Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 745, European Central Bank.
    4. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    5. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2014. "Working Paper – WP/14/05- Transmission of China’s Shocks to the BRIS Countries," Working Papers 6345, South African Reserve Bank.
    6. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
    7. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic integration; International business cycles; sign restrictions; structural shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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