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Regional Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Targeting. The Case of Peru

Author

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  • Diego Winkelried
  • José Enrique Gutierrez

Abstract

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has been targeting inflation for more than a decade, using Lima's inflation as the operational measure. An alternative indicator is countrywide inflation, whose quality and real-time availability have improved substantially. Given these competing measures, two policy questions arise: What have been the implications for national inflation of targeting Lima's inflation? Would shifting to a national aggregate significantly affect the workings of monetary policy in Peru? To answer these questions, we estimate a large, but parsimonious, error correction model and investigate how regional shocks propagate across the country. The results indicate that a shock to Lima's inflation is transmitted fast and strongly elsewhere in the country, whereas the effects of shocks in other regions are limited and short-lived. This constitutes supporting evidence to the view that by targeting Lima's inflation, the BCRP has effectively, albeit indirectly, targeted national inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Winkelried & José Enrique Gutierrez, 2015. "Regional Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Targeting. The Case of Peru," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 199-224, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:18:y:2015:i:2:p:199-224
    DOI: 10.1016/S1514-0326(15)30009-X
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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