Market risk of developed and developing countries during the global financial crisis
This study compares the performance of the widely used risk measure Value-at-Risk (VaR) across a large sample of developed and developing countries. The performance of the VaR is assessed by both unconditional and conditional tests of Kupiec and Christoffersen, respectively, as well as the Quadratic Loss Function. Results indicate that the performance of VaR as a measure of risk is much worse for developed countries than the developing ones during our sample period. One possible reason might be the deeper initial impact of global financial crisis on developed countries than emerging markets. Results also provide evidence of decoupling between emerging and developed countries in terms of market risk during the global financial crisis.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles Goodhart, 2008. "The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis," FMG Special Papers sp177, Financial Markets Group.
- Peter Christoffersen & Jinyong Hahn & Atsushi Inoue, 2001.
"Testing and Comparing Value-at-Risk Measures,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- McAleer, Michael & da Veiga, Bernardo & Hoti, Suhejla, 2011.
"Value-at-Risk for country risk ratings,"
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM),
Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1454-1463.
- Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga & Suhejla Hoti, 2010. "Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings," Working Papers in Economics 10/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga & Suhejla Hoti, 2009. "Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-659, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga & Suhejla Hoti, 2009. "Value-at-Risk for Country Risk Ratings," CARF F-Series CARF-F-169, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- J. Carlos Escanciano & Jose Olmo, 2011. "Robust Backtesting Tests for Value-at-risk Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 132-161, Winter.
- Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2004. "Country financial risk and stock market performance: the case of Latin America," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 21-41.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008.
"Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, 05.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IZA Discussion Papers 3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Tang, Ta-Lun & Shieh, Shwu-Jane, 2006. "Long memory in stock index futures markets: A value-at-risk approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 366(C), pages 437-448.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2009.
"The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2710, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2009. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004.
"Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June.
- Giot Pierre & Laurent Sebastien, 2001. "Modelling daily value-at-risk using realized volatility and arch type models," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, "undated". "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1708, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2002. "Modelling Daily Value-at-Risk Using Realized Volatility and ARCH Type Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 52, Society for Computational Economics.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Ane, Thierry, 2006. "An analysis of the flexibility of Asymmetric Power GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1293-1311, November.
- Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009.
"Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets During the Global Financial Crisis,"
IMF Working Papers
09/104, International Monetary Fund.
- Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 507-521, December.
- Hartz, Christoph & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc, 2006. "Accurate value-at-risk forecasting based on the normal-GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2295-2312, December.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, 06.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Wu, Ping-Tsung & Shieh, Shwu-Jane, 2007. "Value-at-Risk analysis for long-term interest rate futures: Fat-tail and long memory in return innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 248-259, March.
- Fan, Ying & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3156-3171, November.
- Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
- GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2003.
"Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2003028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos & Stavros Degiannakis, 2010. "The Use of GARCH Models in VaR Estimation," Working Papers 0048, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
- Hang Chan, Ngai & Deng, Shi-Jie & Peng, Liang & Xia, Zhendong, 2007. "Interval estimation of value-at-risk based on GARCH models with heavy-tailed innovations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 556-576, April.
- Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee & Cyn‐Young Park, 2011.
"Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 23-53, 01.
- Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Oral Williams, 2011. "Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 11/138, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37523. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.