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A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification

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  • Degiannakis, Stavros
  • Dent, Pamela
  • Floros, Christos

Abstract

In financial literature, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) modelling is focused on producing 1-step ahead conditional variance forecasts. The present paper provides a methodological contribution to the multi-step VaR and ES forecasting through a new adaptation of the Monte Carlo simulation approach for forecasting multi-period volatility to a fractionally integrated GARCH framework for leptokurtic and asymmetrically distributed portfolio returns. Accounting for long memory within the conditional variance process with skewed Student-t (skT) conditionally distributed innovations, accurate 95% and 99% VaR and ES forecasts are calculated for multi-period time horizons. The results show that the FIGARCH-skT model has a superior multi-period VaR and ES forecasting performance.

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  • Degiannakis, Stavros & Dent, Pamela & Floros, Christos, 2014. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification," MPRA Paper 80431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80431
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    Cited by:

    1. Degiannakis, Stavros & Potamia, Artemis, 2017. "Multiple-days-ahead value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting for stock indices, commodities and exchange rates: Inter-day versus intra-day data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 176-190.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis & Alexandra Livada, 2016. "Evaluation of realized volatility predictions from models with leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed forecast errors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 871-892, April.
    3. repec:eee:glofin:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:41-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stavros Degiannakis & Apostolos Kiohos, 2014. "Multivariate modelling of 10-day-ahead VaR and dynamic correlation for worldwide real estate and stock indices," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 216 - 232, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expected Shortfall; FIGARCH; Forecasting; stock indices; skewed Student-t; Volatility; Long Memory; Value-at-Risk; VaR.;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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