IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v20y2009i2p128-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Value-at-Risk using high frequency data: The realized range model

Author

Listed:
  • Shao, Xi-Dong
  • Lian, Yu-Jun
  • Yin, Lian-Qian

Abstract

Current studies on financial market risk measures usually use daily returns based on GARCH type models. This paper models realized range using intraday high frequency data based on CARR framework and apply it to VaR forecasting. Kupiec LR test and dynamic quantile test are used to compare the performance of VaR forecasting of realized range model with another intraday realized volatility model and daily GARCH type models. Empirical results of Chinese Stock Indices show that realized range model performs the same with realized volatility model, which performs much better than daily models.

Suggested Citation

  • Shao, Xi-Dong & Lian, Yu-Jun & Yin, Lian-Qian, 2009. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using high frequency data: The realized range model," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 128-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:128-136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1044-0283(09)00043-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
    2. Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Consistent ranking of volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 97-121.
    3. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    4. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    5. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    7. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2005. "Forecasting Financial Volatilities with Extreme Values: The Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 561-582, June.
    8. Martens, Martin & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Measuring volatility with the realized range," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 181-207, May.
    9. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stavros Degiannakis & Pamela Dent & Christos Floros, 2014. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(1), pages 71-102, January.
    2. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Olmo, Jose, 2013. "Optimally harnessing inter-day and intra-day information for daily value-at-risk prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 28-42.
    3. Ewald, Christian & Hadina, Jelena & Haugom, Erik & Lien, Gudbrand & Størdal, Ståle & Yahya, Muhammad, 2023. "Sample frequency robustness and accuracy in forecasting Value-at-Risk for Brent Crude Oil futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    4. Iacus, Stefano M. & Mercuri, Lorenzo & Rroji, Edit, 2017. "COGARCH(p, q): Simulation and Inference with the yuima Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 80(i04).
    5. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Spyros Xanthopoulos‐Sisinis & Apostolos P. Refenes, 2013. "The Role of High‐Frequency Intra‐daily Data, Daily Range and Implied Volatility in Multi‐period Value‐at‐Risk Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 561-576, September.
    7. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2014. "Realized volatility models and alternative Value-at-Risk prediction strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-116.
    8. Liu, Chun & Maheu, John M., 2012. "Intraday dynamics of volatility and duration: Evidence from Chinese stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 329-348.
    9. Tan, Shay-Kee & Ng, Kok-Haur & Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen & Mohamed, Ibrahim, 2019. "Quantile range-based volatility measure for modelling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 537-551.
    10. Thanakorn Nitithumbundit & Jennifer S. K. Chan, 2020. "ECM Algorithm for Auto-Regressive Multivariate Skewed Variance Gamma Model with Unbounded Density," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1169-1191, September.
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013. "Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 21-33.
    12. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2010. "Intraday Dynamics of Volatility and Duration: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market," Working Papers tecipa-401, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    13. Chan Jennifer So Kuen & Ng Kok-Haur & Nitithumbundit Thanakorn & Peiris Shelton, 2019. "Efficient estimation of financial risk by regressing the quantiles of parametric distributions: An application to CARR models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-22, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tan, Shay-Kee & Ng, Kok-Haur & Chan, Jennifer So-Kuen & Mohamed, Ibrahim, 2019. "Quantile range-based volatility measure for modelling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 537-551.
    2. Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting value-at-risk using the unbiased extreme value volatility estimator," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205528, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Spyros Xanthopoulos‐Sisinis & Apostolos P. Refenes, 2013. "The Role of High‐Frequency Intra‐daily Data, Daily Range and Implied Volatility in Multi‐period Value‐at‐Risk Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 561-576, September.
    4. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2014. "Realized volatility models and alternative Value-at-Risk prediction strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-116.
    5. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
    6. F. Lilla, 2016. "High Frequency vs. Daily Resolution: the Economic Value of Forecasting Volatility Models," Working Papers wp1084, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Gerlach, Richard & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Semi-parametric dynamic asymmetric Laplace models for tail risk forecasting, incorporating realized measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 489-506.
    8. Chao Wang & Richard Gerlach, 2019. "Semi-parametric Realized Nonlinear Conditional Autoregressive Expectile and Expected Shortfall," Papers 1906.09961, arXiv.org.
    9. Chao Wang & Richard Gerlach & Qian Chen, 2018. "A Semi-parametric Realized Joint Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Regression Framework," Papers 1807.02422, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    10. Richard Gerlach & Chao Wang, 2016. "Bayesian Semi-parametric Realized-CARE Models for Tail Risk Forecasting Incorporating Realized Measures," Papers 1612.08488, arXiv.org.
    11. F. Lilla, 2017. "High Frequency vs. Daily Resolution: the Economic Value of Forecasting Volatility Models - 2nd ed," Working Papers wp1099, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    12. Robert Ślepaczuk & Grzegorz Zakrzewski, 2009. "High-Frequency and Model-Free Volatility Estimators," Working Papers 2009-13, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    13. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Xie, Haibin & Qi, Nan & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "A new variant of RealGARCH for volatility modeling," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 438-443.
    15. Henning Fischer & Ángela Blanco‐FERNÁndez & Peter Winker, 2016. "Predicting Stock Return Volatility: Can We Benefit from Regression Models for Return Intervals?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 113-146, March.
    16. Richard Gerlach & Chao Wang, 2016. "Forecasting risk via realized GARCH, incorporating the realized range," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 501-511, April.
    17. Chen, Wei-Peng & Choudhry, Taufiq & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2013. "The extreme value in crude oil and US dollar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-210.
    18. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2005. "Variation, jumps, market frictions and high frequency data in financial econometrics," OFRC Working Papers Series 2005fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    19. Degiannakis, Stavros & Livada, Alexandra, 2013. "Realized volatility or price range: Evidence from a discrete simulation of the continuous time diffusion process," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 212-216.
    20. Fiszeder, Piotr & Fałdziński, Marcin, 2019. "Improving forecasts with the co-range dynamic conditional correlation model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:128-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.