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The emperor has no clothes: Limits to risk modelling

  • Danielsson, Jon

This paper considers the properties of risk measures, primarily Value-at Risk (VaR), from both internal and external (regulatory) points of view. It is argued that since market data is endogenous to market behavior, statistical analysis made in times of stability does not provide much guidance in times of crisis. In an extensive survey across data classes and risk models, the empirical properties of current risk forecasting models are found to be lacking in robustness while being excessively volatile. For regulatory use, the VaR measure is lacking in the ability to fulfil its intended task, it gives misleading information about risk, and in some cases may actually increase both idiosyncratic and systemic risk. Finally, it is hypothesized that risk modelling is not an appropriate foundation for regulatory design, and alternative mechanisms are discussed.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 26 (2002)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
Pages: 1273-1296

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:26:y:2002:i:7:p:1273-1296
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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  1. Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & De Vries, C.G., 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Papers 71, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  2. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-45, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1999. "Optimal Risk Management Using Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 359-375, 02.
  4. Jean-Pierre Zigrand & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "What Happens When You Regulate Risk? Evidence from a Simple Equilibrium Model," FMG Discussion Papers dp393, Financial Markets Group.
  5. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Temporal Aggregation of Garch Processes," Papers 9240, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  7. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  8. Con Keating & Hyun Song Shin & Charles Goodhart & Jon Danielsson, 2001. "An Academic Response to Basel II," FMG Special Papers sp130, Financial Markets Group.
  9. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Other publications TiSEM 0642fb61-c7f4-4281-b484-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  10. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  11. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
  12. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1999. "Risk Management with Interdependent Choice," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 52-62, Autumn.
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