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Risk Management with Interdependent Choice


  • Morris, Stephen
  • Shin, Hyun Song


Risks faced by traders from price movements are sometimes magnified by the actions of other traders. Risk-management systems which neglect this feature may give a seriously misleading picture of the true risks. The hazards arising from this potential blindspot are at their most dangerous when the prevailing conventional wisdom lulls traders into a false sense of security on the attractiveness of a trading position. The efforts of one trader to reverse his trade makes more acute the need to follow suit on the part of others. For markets dominated by traders with short time horizons, such interdependence leads to exaggerated price movements. Estimates of "value at risk" which recognize such interdependence of actions can diverge substantially from those given by conventional techniques. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1999. "Risk Management with Interdependent Choice," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 52-62, Autumn.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:52-62

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ari Hyytinen & Tuomas Takalo, 2004. "Preventing Systemic Crises through Bank Transparency," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, July.
    2. Ulrich Erlenmaier & Hans Gersbach, 2001. "The Funds Concentration Effect and Discriminatory Bailout," CESifo Working Paper Series 591, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Plantin, Guillaume & Sapra, Haresh & Shin, Hyun-Song, 2005. "Marking to Market, Liquidity, and Financial Stability," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(S1), pages 133-155, October.
    5. Pagratis, Spyros, 2004. "Co-ordination failure and the role of banks in the resolution of financial distress," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24939, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Christine M. Cumming & Beverly Hirtle, 2001. "The challenges of risk management in diversified financial companies," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 1-17.
    7. Cornelis A. Los & Rossitsa M. Yalamova, 2004. "Multi-Fractal Spectral Analysis of the 1987 Stock Market Crash," Finance 0409050, EconWPA.
    8. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May.
    9. Andrew G Haldane & Jorg Scheibe, 2004. "IMF lending and creditor moral hazard," Bank of England working papers 216, Bank of England.
    10. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    11. Philippe Jorion, 2007. "Bank Trading Risk and Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters,in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 29-58 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Danielsson, Jon, 2002. "The emperor has no clothes: Limits to risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1273-1296, July.
    13. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    14. David M Harrison & Mark A. Lane & Michael J. Seiler, 2014. "Mimetic Herding Behavior and the Decision to Strategically Default," Framed Field Experiments 00625, The Field Experiments Website.
    15. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Nada Mora & Claus Puhr, 2009. "Towards a Framework for Quantifying Systemic Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 47-81, September.
    16. Michel Aglietta, 2003. "Le risque systémique dans la finance libéralisée," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 33-50.
    17. Michael Seiler & Mark Lane & David Harrison, 2014. "Mimetic Herding Behavior and the Decision to Strategically Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 621-653, November.
    18. Mobarek, Asma & Mollah, Sabur & Keasey, Kevin, 2014. "A cross-country analysis of herd behavior in Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 107-127.
    19. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Conditional Probabilty of Default Methodolgy," FMG Discussion Papers dp558, Financial Markets Group.
    20. Roberto Casarin & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2012. "Financial press and stock markets in times of crisis," Working Papers 2012_04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    21. James O'Brien & Jeremy Berkowitz, 2005. "Estimating Bank Trading Risk: A Factor Model Approach," NBER Working Papers 11608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Borio, Claudio & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 2004. "Accounting and prudential regulation: from uncomfortable bedfellows to perfect partners?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 111-135, September.
    23. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Conditional probability of default methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24512, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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