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Monetary Transmission Mechanism In A Small Open Economy: A Bayesian Structural Var Approach

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  • Rokon Bhuiyan

    (Queen's University)

Abstract

This paper develops an open-economy Bayesian structural VAR model for Canada in order to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks, using the overnight target rate as the policyinstrument. I allow the policy variable and the financial variables of the model to interact simultaneously with each other and with a number of other home and foreign variables. WhenI estimate this over-identified VAR model, I find that the policy shock transmits to real output through both the interest rate and exchange rate channels, and the shock does not induce a departure from uncovered interest rate parity. I also find that the impulse response of the monetary aggregate, M1, does not exactly follow the impulse response of the target rate.Finally, I find that Canadian variables significantly responds to the US federal funds rate shock, and external shocks are an important source of Canadian output fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rokon Bhuiyan, 2008. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism In A Small Open Economy: A Bayesian Structural Var Approach," Working Paper 1183, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1183
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    Cited by:

    1. Finlay, Richard & Jääskelä, Jarkko P., 2014. "Credit supply shocks and the global financial crisis in three small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 270-276.
    2. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    3. Guido Turnip, 2017. "Identification of Small Open Economy SVARs via Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 465-483, September.
    4. Tafirenyika Sunde & Olusegun A. Akanbi, 2016. "Sources of unemployment in Namibia: an application of the structural VAR approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 125-143.
    5. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    6. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Carlos Molina, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Policy Rates in a Small Open Economy and the Role of Foreign Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 915, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    8. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    9. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.
    10. Anwar, Sajid & Nguyen, Lan Phi, 2018. "Channels of monetary policy transmission in Vietnam," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 709-729.
    11. Louis, Rosmy J & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2009. "Are Mortgage Rates Bubbling Up Trouble for Canadas Metropolitan Housing Sector?," MPRA Paper 17245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Christian Rohe & Matthias Hartermann, 2015. "The role of external shocks for monetary policy in Colombia and Brazil: A Bayesian SVAR analysis," CQE Working Papers 4215, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; structural VAR; block exogeneity; impulse response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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