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Credit supply shocks and the global financial crisis in three small open economies

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  • Finlay, Richard
  • Jääskelä, Jarkko P.

Abstract

We investigate the impact of domestic and foreign credit supply shocks on a number of key macroeconomic variables for three small open economies: Australia, Canada and the UK. We find that negative domestic and foreign credit supply shocks together explain, on average, one-third to one-half of the fall in business credit and rise in spreads seen in the three countries during the financial crisis; other identified non-credit-supply shocks explain the rest. Credit supply shocks also explain around one-sixth of the fall in output in the three countries, and one-quarter of the fall initially seen in UK inflation. This suggests that credit supply shocks played an important role in the financial crisis, but not a dominant one.

Suggested Citation

  • Finlay, Richard & Jääskelä, Jarkko P., 2014. "Credit supply shocks and the global financial crisis in three small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 270-276.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:270-276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.01.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2022. "Systematic Monetary Policy in a SVAR for Australia," Working papers 2022rwp-194, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    2. Daniel M. Rees & Penelope Smith & Jamie Hall, 2016. "A Multi-sector Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 374-408, September.
    3. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    4. Hamish Burrell & Joaquin Vespignani, 2021. "The Industrial Impact of Economic Uncertainty Shocks in Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 248-271, September.
    5. Benjamin Beckers, 2020. "Credit Spreads, Monetary Policy and the Price Puzzle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Victor Pontines, 2021. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: empirical evidence from Korea," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1311-1350, September.
    7. Kim Abildgren, 2016. "A century of macro-financial linkages," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(4), pages 458-471, November.
    8. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    9. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    10. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "Bank Lending Standards, Loan Demand, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from the Emerging Market Bank Loan Officer Survey," Working papers 2018rwp-126, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    11. Driver, Ciaran & Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair, 2019. "Financial constraints on investment: Effects of firm size and the financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 441-457.
    12. Wiriyawit Varang & Wong Benjamin, 2016. "Structural VARs, deterministic and stochastic trends: how much detrending matters for shock identification," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 141-157, April.
    13. Finlay Richard & Price Fiona, 2015. "Household saving in Australia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 677-704, July.
    14. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2016. "Monetary policy and exchange rates: Further evidence using a new method for implementing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 177-191.
    15. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sign-restricted VAR; Credit supply; Small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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